Interview: Expert says latest ruling could lead to prolonged Brexit

A leading academic expert on politics believed that European negotiators may seek to continue Brexit talks with Britain until the 2020s when a new government will be in place at Westminster.

Dimitris Papadimitriou, professor of politics and director of the Manchester Jean Monnet Center of Excellence at the University of Manchester, also said Brussels may have the upper hand in brokering a deal with the British government because, in his view, Britain needs the access to Europe's single market more than it needs Britain.

Papadimitriou's interview with Xinhua came as David Davis, British secretary of state for exiting the EU, gave the government's first response in the House of Commons to last Thursday's landmark "Article 50" court ruling.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has announced she plans to start the process for Britain to leave the EU by triggering the Article 50 process by next March.

High Court judges said May's government cannot trigger Article 50 without reference to the British parliament.

A definitive ruling is expected when the case goes before Britain's Supreme Court next month.

In the House of Commons Monday, Davis told MPs the government was disappointed with the court ruling. But he added that the aim is to stick with the timetable to trigger the process for leaving the EU by the end of March.

"We must respect the outcome of the referendum. There can be no going back. We have reached the point of no return," he said.

Davis also condemned proposed actions by some politicians that could delay or wreck the Brexit process.

Papadimitriou, a leading expert on the Brexit debate, gave his views on Monday in an exclusive interview with Xinhua.

The Surpreme Court ruling is the first of many hurdles in the road to Brexit, he said.

If the court rules there has to be a full parliamentary debate prior to starting the Brexit process, much will depend on what happens in the more unpredictable House of Lords.

"I don't think there will be a significant delay in triggering Article 50. It might go on a few months longer than planned, which is not huge in the grand scheme of things. I don't even think the process will be sabotaged, as there are not enough members in the houses of parliaments to wreck it," he said.

Papadimitriou said he believes the British government has underestimated how committed the EU is to protecting its four key principles at the heart of its single market strategy, the movements of goods, services, capital and people.

Once Article 50 is triggered, he added, one of the critical questions will be Britain's access to the European single market and its potential half a billion customers.

"A deal is unlikely which allows free movement of goods, services and capital, but not of people. The fear in Europe will be if Britain is allowed to pick and choose, who knows if, in two, three or even five years Germany or France may seek something similar."

"If access to the single market is conditional on free movement of people, some may say why bother to leave in the first place. The European negotiators will be aware that in many respects Britain needs the single market more than the single market needs Britain."

"For every German car sold in Britain, there are many more British goods sold in Europe.

"This is the first time something like this has happened in Europe, so there is a lack of clarity. European legislation currently binding on Britain goes into 80,000 pages. All of that will have to be unravelled as British negotiators seek agreement on 200 trade deals around the world. It is a recipe for confusion, and likely to be a very prolonged process."

Even so, Papadimitriou believed that if a re-run of the referendum was held this week, the decision to leave would be upheld with an even bigger margin than on June 23.

"But eventually some people will not see the clear Brexit they had dreamt of. If Britain loses access to the European single market, it will affect the everyday lives of everyone in the country, with border controls, money controls, lots of issues. But even so there will not be a re-run of the referendum."

One scenario for the future would be if a final Brexit deal is negotiated by the government, but rejected by the British parliament.

"Some people may think we would just leave anyway, deal or no deal. That will not happen. Although it is being said that departure must come two years after Article 50 is triggered, that is not the case. Britain's membership could continue beyond the two-year timetable as there is nothing in the European treaty to say it could not continue."

"There is a passage in the treaty saying membership can be extended if all parties agree."

Papadimitriou does not believe a final outcome would be put to the British people as the details would be too technical.

More likely than a deal being settled by the spring of 2019, he believes it would suit Europe for negotiators in Brussels to play for time. This would take the process beyond the current government into the 2020s.

Such a scenario would enable a fresh look at things, especially if the next British general election scheduled for May 2020, had a clear pro-European majority.

"A lot can happen in the next few years," said Papadimitriou, who supported Britain remaining in the EU.

The big problem on a difficult and tricky road ahead he fears, is whether the issue develops into a constitutional crisis.

Quitting the EU is not as easy as it seemed on a ballot paper in Britain in June. Endit