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OPEC expects oil price to rise to 70 USD/barrel in 2020

Xinhua, December 23, 2015 Adjust font size:

The oil price will stop falling and resume an upward trend in the next 25 years, OPEC's world oil outlook predicted on Wednesday.

"The price of the ORB (OPEC reference basket) is assumed to average 55 U.S. dollars per barrel during 2015 and to resume an upward trend in both the medium and long-term," the report forecast, saying the oil price would reach 70 U.S. dollars a barrel in 2020 and 95 dollars per barrel in 2040.

However, these figures are still far from a high point of 114 dollars per barrel in June 2014 before prices began to plunge.

OPEC sees a gradual improvement in global market conditions as growing demand and non-OPEC supply growth -- slower than previously expected -- eliminate the existing oversupply and lead to a more balanced market.

The report predicts that the oil demand will rise to 97.4 million barrels per day by 2020 and around 110 million barrels per day in 2040, while the oil supply is forecast to rise to 97.6 million barrels a day in 2020.

In terms of the world energy demand, which is expected to increase by 50 percent in the period to 2040, OPEC believes that fossil energy could still be dominant in the next two decades.

"Changes in the energy mix are expected to continue, though fossil fuels will continue to dominate the mix with a 78-percent share by 2040. In the next 20 years, oil will remain the fuel with the largest share of global energy use," the report forecast.

Though the world oil market has been experiencing a serious oversupply in the past months, the major world oil producers have failed to agree on a joint cut of the output to rebalance the market.

But analysts are expecting an oil price recovery by mid-2016.

Oil prices have continued to go down after an OPEC meeting in Vienna on Dec. 4, which failed to make a clear decision on production quotas. Endit