News Analysis: Russian role seen in Ankara-Baghdad tension over Turkish reinforcements to Mosul

The wrangling between Turkey and Russia over a downed Russian warplane has spilled over into Iraq, as Baghdad asked Turkey to withdraw its troops sent into Mosul over the weekend over perceived pressure from Moscow.

The Iraqi central government on Sunday gave Turkish troops 48 hours to leave, calling the reinforcements to a military camp in the town of Bashiqa near Mosul in northern Iraq a violation of Iraq's sovereignty.

As a matter of fact, the camp has been used by Turkish troops to train Kurdish and local Arab forces to fight against the Islamic State (IS) militant group since 2014.

Turkish analysts who spoke to Xinhua described Ankara's latest deployment to the region, in which a training battalion equipped with armored vehicles was dispatched, as a step within the framework of an agreement signed with Iraq's Kurdish autonomous region.

The analysts even advised the central government in Baghdad to perceive the latest move, which brought the number of Turkey's special forces in the camp to 600, as part of the counter-terrorism efforts.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq, however, on Monday gave the Turkish troops 48 hours to leave, threatening to use all available options, including going to the UN Security Council, if Ankara refuses to comply.

Iraqi President Fuad Masum called the act "a violation of international norms, laws and Iraq's national sovereignty" and one contributing to increased tensions in the region.

Hakim al-Zamili, head of Iraqi parliament's security and defense committee, even called for airstrikes against the Turkish troops in case they remain near Mosul, Iraq's second largest city under IS control since June 2014.

Turkey's act has sparked a strong reaction from Iran and Syria as well, with Iran warning of chaos and regional security to be threatened.

In the view of Serdar Erdurmaz, a military analyst, Russian pressure was playing an important role in what he called the "bitter words" coming from Baghdad.

"After the downing of Russia's jet on Nov. 24 by Turkey, Moscow started to apply an immense pressure over Turkey in every occasion, and this one is the latest example of it," he said.

Moscow has slapped punitive measures against Ankara over its refusal to apologize over the downing incident, with bilateral ties strained further by an escalating war of words.

Turkey currently has around 3,000 soldiers based in northern Iraq, including Erbil, Zakho, Dohuk, Amediye and Suleymaniah.

"Ankara up to now has realized its military deployment to the region without any constrains," Erdurmaz remarked. "But what has happened suddenly?"

According to Metin Gurcan, a security analyst, Turkey is aiming to establish a balance in the region against the Shiite alliance that includes Iran, Russia and Iraq by means of supporting Sunni Arabs and the Kurdish administration in Iraq.

"That could be one reason behind Turkey's military deployment to the region," he said, noting that Turkey with 3,000 special forces deployed in northern Iraq becomes the third biggest power in the region after the United States and Iran.

"Turkey has sent a commando battalion to Iraq, which means 400 commandos and around 100 military tank personnel," he continued. "That makes 600 soldiers in Bashiqa camp alone."

In his view, this number of deployment seemed to be an "reinforcement" rather than a "routine rotation" as had been announced by Turkey.

"Turkey very apparently seeks to transform its temporary training camp into a permanent base," he remarked.

The analyst also argued that Ankara intends to show its presence in Iraq and wants to be one of the main actors who are going to shape the future of the region when the IS is not the focus any more.

"After downing Russian jet, Ankara has been excluded from the game in Syria and became isolated," he said. "Now it aims to make up this isolation with a presence in Iraq." Endit