Ebola cases could top 20,000 in months

The WHO roadmap issued today "assumes that in many areas of intense transmission the actual number of cases may be 2-4 fold higher than that currently reported. It acknowledges that the aggregate case load of EVD could exceed 20,000 over the course of this emergency."

The plan "recognizes that a number of currently unaffected countries could be exposed to EVD (Ebola Virus Disease), but assumes that the emergency application of the standard control strategies will stop any new transmission within 8 weeks of the index case."

The roadmap was based on comments received from a large number of partners, including health officials in the affected countries, the African Union, development banks, other UN agencies, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), and countries providing direct financial support, WHO said.

A situation reports map is expected to begin this week containing hotspots and hot zones, present epidemiological data showing how the outbreak is evolving over time, and communicate what is known about the location of treatment facilities and laboratories, together with data needed to support other elements of the roadmap.

Today's Ebola response roadmap covers the health dimensions of the international response. These dimensions include key potential bottlenecks requiring international coordination, such as the supply of personal protective equipment, disinfectants, and body bags.

The roadmap will be complemented by the development of a separate UN-wide operational platform that brings in the skills and capacities of other agencies, including assets in the areas of logistics and transportation. The UN-wide platform aims to facilitate the delivery of essential services, such as food and other provisions, water supply and sanitation, and primary health care.

WHO also said today that it continues to monitor for reports of rumoured or suspected cases from countries around the world and systematic verification of these cases is ongoing. Countries are encouraged to continue engaging in active surveillance and preparedness activities, the healthy agency recommended.

Dr. Margaret Chan, the WHO Director-General, and Dr. David Nabarro, the UN System Coordinator for Ebola who just completed a visit to the affected countries, are expected to be at UN Headquarters in New York next week, a UN spokesperson said.