Ebola cases could top 20,000 in months

A health worker checks a blood sample for Ebola at Kenema government hospital, Sierra Leone. [IRIN/Tommy] 

The United Nations World Health Organization (WHO) Thursday warned that the actual number of cases may be much higher than currently reported and the total ebola caseload could exceed 20,000 within six to nine months.

The health agency has issued a roadmap that aims to stop Ebola transmissions.

Dr. Bruce Aylward, WHO Assistant Director-General for Polio, Emergencies and Country Collaboration, told a news conference in Geneva: "What we are seeing today in contrast to previous Ebola outbreaks [are] multiple hotspots within these countries, not a single remote forested area, the kind of environments in which it has been tackled in the past. And then not just multiple hotspots within one country, but international disease, and it is now, as you know, really a multinational effort, three countries, heavily affected."

According to the Ebola response roadmap launched by Dr. Aylward, the key milestones are to "reverse the trend in new cases and infected areas within three months, stop transmission in capital cities and major ports, and stop all residual transmission with 6 to 9 months."

The roadmap "responds to the urgent need to dramatically scale up the international response," WHO said in a statement. "Nearly 40 per cent of the total number of reported cases have occurred within the past three weeks."

"The $490 million indicative budget for the roadmap presents a consolidated view of the estimated global resources required over the next six months – by national governments, WHO, some UN agencies and other partners – for the health response to stop Ebola transmission," according to the 27-page document issued by the Geneva-based UN health agency.

Priority is being given to needs for treatment and management centres, social mobilization, and safe burials, it said.

The latest official number of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone stands at 3,069, with over 1,552 deaths, making this the largest Ebola outbreak ever recorded, WHO says. An unprecedented number of health care workers have also been infected and died due to this outbreak.

According to the latest West African update, "the overall case fatality rate is 52 per cent. It ranges from 42 per cent in Sierra Leone to 66 per cent in Guinea." A separate outbreak of Ebola virus disease, which is not related to the outbreak in West Africa, was laboratory-confirmed on 26 August in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

In that update, WHO reiterated that it "does not recommend any travel or trade restrictions be applied except in cases where individuals have been confirmed or are suspected of being infected with EVD or where individuals have had contact with cases of EVD.