Trump's reckless threat of a nuclear arms race

"A man you can bait with a tweet is not a man you can trust with nuclear weapons." —Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump raised fresh questions about his temperament on December 23 with remarks that suggested he was ready to start a fresh nuclear arms race with Russia. It started with a statement on Twitter that the U.S. "must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes."

Judging by the words of America's incoming president, he doesn’t think that’s going to happen soon.

The next morning, he reiterated his position on MSNBC, saying, "Let it be an arms race. We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all."

By using the plural, it would appear he has more than one country in mind. Hawkish demagogues of his ilk like to talk up the threat of China and Iran, but there's only one country that comes close to America in terms of its nuclear arsenal, and that's Russia.

Indeed, Vladimir Putin started the exchange when he said on December 22, "We need to strengthen the military potential of strategic nuclear forces, especially with missile complexes that can reliably penetrate any existing and prospective missile defense system."

Having engaged in a romance of sorts with Putin throughout his presidential campaign, and arguing for improving America's relations with Moscow, it would appear a turnaround for Trump to start saber-rattling. However, this is in line with his tendency to respond impetuously to any perceived act of foreign aggression.

Putin sounded the adult in the room compared to Trump: "If anyone is unleashing an arms race, it's not us," he said.

During the campaign, Trump was callous about the spread of nuclear weapons. He even argued that South Korea and Japan should be allowed to develop nukes in order to defend themselves should the U.S. withdraw troops from their territory. "If Japan had that nuclear threat, I'm not sure that would be a bad thing for us," he declared in the New York Times.

As for American nuclear brinksmanship, he left open the threat of making nuclear strikes all around the world, including in Europe. "If we have them, why can't we use them?" he said, in a canny impression of Dr. Strangelove's commander Jack D. Ripper.

The Global Times was right in saying Trump is "as ignorant as a child." He knows nothing about nuclear policy or any other important issue he may confront, and he rarely accepts intelligence briefings.

When asked during a debate how he would modernize America's nuclear triad, Trump responded with a stew of gibberish that ended with: "I think, for me, nuclear is just the power, the devastation is very important to me."

For some background on his supposed nuclear views, consider a speech he made in July 2015, about his genetic background, his uncle, Iran, and lots of other things — it was an epic run-on sentence.

"Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart... ....nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right," Trump rambled.

So the core of Trump's understanding of nuclear is that it's very powerful. "Who would have thought?"

And it should be kept out of the hands of madmen. Going back to his answer at the debate, he also said, "[W]e have to be extremely vigilant and extremely careful when it comes to nuclear. ... The biggest problem we have is nuclear proliferation and having some maniac, having some madman go out and get a nuclear weapon."

So, certainly, nuclear weapons should be kept out of the hands of Trump.

What he doesn't realize is that the whole point of a country having nuclear capabilities is that it shouldn't have to use them. The deterrence effect of nuclear weapons should keep a country safe, because no adversary would want to risk getting attacked. Leading Neo-realist scholar Kenneth Waltz wrote in a paper in 1981 that nuclear weapons "make the cost of war seem frighteningly high and thus discourage states from starting any wars that might lead to the use of such weapons."

Nuclear-armed states must reserve the right to use their weapons defensively in order to maintain the deterrent effect, but they must not act rashly. A president need not openly state, "All cards are on the table," with regard to nuking Europe. That is implied by the presence of weapons. As Waltz wrote, "Adversary states that acquire them are thereby made more cautious in their dealings with each other."

But Trump is not a man of subtleties. His unhinged rhetoric creates uncertainty, increasing the danger a state might use nuclear weapons offensively or preemptively in response to perceived aggression from Trump. Trump has already raised tensions with China by making reckless comments about Taiwan.

Nor is recklessness limited to his words. It could manifest itself in a militaristic foreign policy. The man who called himself "the most militaristic" candidate has surrounded himself with aggressive advisors who threaten perpetual conflict with Muslim nations. While there was hope among his supporters that he could even out relations with Russia, even that could be off the table, now he says he wants an arms race.

Meanwhile, an America engaging in rampant nuclear development won't have much credibility in trying to convince North Korea to stop its nuclear program or keep Iran abiding by the nuclear deal that Trump and Republican hawks already want to tear up.

Democrats can say, "I told ya so," but they won't be able to say it with joy.

The author is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/MitchellBlatt.htm

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.