News Analysis: Japan's emperor hinting at abdication deals deft conundrum for hawkish Abe gov't to deal with

In an unprecedented televised address delivered on Monday, Japan's Emperor Akihito with references to his age and issues of health, voiced concerns about his ability to fully carry out his responsibilities within the context of his current role as symbol of the State and intimated his wishes to abdicate the Chrysanthemum throne.

The emperor, 82, said that following two surgeries within the past few years, he had began to feel the pressure from undertaking his official duties and that this had caused him to think about the future direction of the Imperial Family and hinted at a possible transition in the future that would be in line with "the will of the people" and cause as little disruption to the nation as possible.

In the 10-minute address, the emperor traversed the fact that he ascended to the throne around 28 years ago and that since then he has, along with the people of Japan, "shared in the joys and sorrows that the nation has faced" and maintained that it was his utmost responsibility as Emperor to pray for and always consider the happiness of all people.

But there was no mistaking the undertone of his desire to renounce the throne, yet ensure Japan's postwar pacifist ways live on, despite the current political climate.

"I am already 80 years old, and fortunately I am now in good health. However, when I consider that my fitness level is gradually declining, I am worried that it may become difficult for me to carry out my duties as the symbol of the State with my whole being as I have done until now," the emperor said.

Despite only recent speculation that Akihito has been considering stepping down from his role as the symbol of the state, sources close to the matter said Tuesday that the emperor has, in fact, long been thinking about relinquishing his position and handing over the reins to Crown Prince Naruhito, who shares the emperor's pacifist ideology and prioritization of the people and peace in Japan and the world.

The potential abdication, observers close to the matter have remarked, could be Akihito's final subtle, yet artful intention to ensure that the current status of the emperor as a peaceful, symbolic figure is maintained, amid the current government's increasingly militaristic tenets.

At odds, commentators close to affairs pertaining to the Imperial Household pointed out, are Akihito's wish to abdicate and ensure his peaceful reign continues, and the fact that the current Constitution has no clear edict on emperors abdicating.

In addition, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's increasing drive to reinstate a Constitution akin to pre-war days, that holds the emperor's will as being absolute, is driving a thorn deeper into the hawkish leader's side, who must now consider the conundrum being presented and its wide-reaching implications.

Abe's ruling coalition is pushing to remilitarize Japan by way of amending Japan's Constitution and should a public referendum on the matter fail, an "Emergency Powers Act" could be passed to amend the Constitution anyway, if the county is deemed to be facing a crisis, which analysts have said is an openly militaristic move used historically by demagogues to subvert democracy and advance despotism.

Yet the emperor and his wife, Empress Michiko, in their near 28-year-reign, have fulfilled their honorary duties in a mild, peaceful and quiet manner and in doing so have worked to perpetuate the postwar, Constitutionally-decreed path of Japan as a peaceful nation, and have, in spite of the government's growing militancy and avoidance of the topic, served as testaments to remind the nation and the world that the horrors Imperial Japan inflicted on other nations during World War II must never be repeated.

As the Abe-led administration pushes for 70 years of pacifism to be reversed constitutionally as his administration tracks an increasingly right wing, revisionist path, Akihito, in contrast, has denounced war and called for Japan to earnestly reflect on its barbaric past.

In his New Year addresses to the nation, the silver-haired monarch, with increasing frailty evincing his years of bridge-building and peace-based national and international duties, repeatedly calls for the happiness of the people of Japan and peace in the world.

And his stance on peace, against a challenging political backdrop, has been resounding and unwavering, with him famously stating that, "In view of history, I sincerely wish that the ravages of war will never be repeated. With all the Japanese public, I mourn for those who perished in battles and lost their lives in the horrors of war."

Acknowledging that innocent lives were lost on all sides of the war waged by Japan, and underscored by his visit with the empress to overseas countries in Southeast Asia to pay tribute to and mourn lives who were lost in the atrocities caused by the Imperial Japanese Army, Akihito has said that he believes that "it is extremely important for the Japanese people to strive to accurately understand this past history along with the ensuing era," this, in stark contrast to Abe's current revisionist-based agenda.

"I hope that knowledge about past facts will continue to be passed down in a proper manner ... and will be used for future benefit," the emperor has also famously stated.

The Constitution, however, while prohibiting an emperor from engaging in any political activities, has seen Akihito avoid directly discussing any outspoken opposition to the current course of the government, or ideas to revise the succession system that is based on the Imperial House Law, yet, as with Monday's address, his perspectives are still made clear.

And debate is now rife about the likelihood the Imperial House Law will have to be revised, as the emperor in his speech maintained that taking on less responsibilities would be undesirable.

According to Kyodo News, he also has the nation's support and thus his possible abdication would be in line with his continued desire to follow the "will of the people," while the government, for its part, under Abe, has forged ahead making unilateral decisions at a Cabinet level, that have seen constitutionally-unsound war-linked legislation forced through parliament and into law, against the peace-loving will of the people.

Kyodo's poll this month showed that 85.7 percent of respondents contacted on the matter maintained that abdication should be legalized as an option for the emperor and his successors, by revising the Imperial House Law. The government will now, analysts with knowledge of the matter said, likely have to debate the matter in parliament.

An expert panel will be created, sources said Tuesday, with commentators here believing that despite Abe's apparent reluctance to the move, evidenced by his overtly curt official response to the emperor's address Monday, and in spite of detractors pointing out the possible blurred lines such debate would be based on, as the Constitution calls for political neutrality from the emperor even regarding his own abdication, by abdication or by death, the crown prince's succession after Akihito is all but guaranteed.

Monday marking only the second time the emperor has made a non-scheduled televised address, with the first being after the earthquake and tsunami disaster that struck the nation in 2011, underscores the significance of Akihito's suggestion of wanting to abdicate and all the implications for continued peace and pacifism contained therein, with scholars maintaining the government's race towards remilitarization has, in a mild, peaceful and quiet manner, now been deftly stifled by the very figurehead they are seeking to, ostensibly, reinstate. Endit