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News Analysis: Russian pullout from Syria to have positive impact on Geneva peace talks

Xinhua, March 16, 2016 Adjust font size:

The withdrawal of Russian military forces from Syria is a step forward that could help promote the peace talks in Geneva, analysts said.

Experts say the move, which was welcomed by the Syrian opposition, will serve as a strong impetus to the ongoing peace talks.

"Russia has achieved impressive military gains in Syria, which made national reconciliation and the ceasefire agreement between Damascus and the opposition groups possible," Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the Russian magazine National Defense, told Xinhua.

Echoing Korotchenko's opinions, Han Xudong, professor with the National Defence University PLA China, said the move showed that Russia is ready to compromise on the Syria issue, and it obviously has positive influence on the ground.

"Russia launched the military operation for peace in the country, and Moscow will continue pushing forward the peace negotiations," said Wan Chengcai, an expert on Russian foreign policy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered the withdrawal of the main part of Russian forces from Syria, saying the six-month military intervention had largely achieved its objective.

Putin's announcement came on the same day the Syrian government and opposition representatives sat down to renew peace negotiations in Geneva. The talks restarted under UN auspices, after a Russian and U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement had largely held for over two weeks.

In spite of the pullback, Russia said it would not stop fighting the Islamic State (IS) and other terrorist groups in Syria as it still has sufficient military capabilities there.

Analysts stressed that Russia is "withdrawing" instead of "quitting," pointing to the fact that Russia has kept its Hmeimim air base in Syria and Tartus naval facility functioning.

Wan said Russia would continue playing a big role in facilitating the talks through its own means.

What Russia withdrew is "people," instead of "infrastructure," Wan said.

The expert also believed that Russia's troop withdrawal could ease Moscow's tension with the West, especially with Washington.

"Russia may now take the advantage of Putin's decision and try to reach a resolution over the Ukraine crisis," Wan added.

TRUE REASON BEHIND PULLOUT

After Putin ordered the surprise withdrawal of the bulk of Moscow's forces, a number of western media reports said the pullout from Syria came as a relief to Russia's struggling economy, indicating that "lack of money" is one of the reasons behind Russia's withdrawal.

As one of the world's biggest oil producers, Russia is indeed facing some pressure from low oil prices. However, analysts said money could not possibly be the main reason for the country's pullback, saying Moscow's campaign had largely achieved its objective.

"We cannot simply think that Russia's withdrawal of troops is concerned with money, actually it is concerned with Russia's overall strategy," Wan said.

He stressed that Russia has already achieved its main goals, including destroying most IS facilities and helping government forces turn the tables in the civil war.

Wan's remarks were echoed by Chu Yin, associate professor of international affairs with the Beijing-based University of International Relations, who said that Russia has achieved its strategic goals in Syria.

"Moscow's main goals are keeping Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in power and forcing Washington and other partners to sit at the negotiating table," he said.

Chu believed that Russia would gain less if it continues to launch airstrikes.

"Most IS facilities are gone. Russia would gain more only if it sends land troops, but that's impossible," he said.

"Russia graciously bows out because it knows that more fighting means more time and involvement but fewer achievements overall," he added.

Putin's decision might have surprised some, but in the eyes of analysts, "quick action" is not rare in Russia's military history.

"In the Kosovo War, Russia unexpectedly sent troops to Pristina. In 2008, Russia suddenly sent troops to Georgia," Han said.

"That's the Russian style," he added. Endi