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News Analysis: Addressing economic woes is key for Venezuela's stability

Xinhua, March 16, 2016 Adjust font size:

Venezuela is facing perhaps its worst national crisis in nearly 20 years, one marked by a severe economic turmoil, political uncertainty and worsening tensions with the United States, all of which have shaken the stability of the country.

Besieged by all these political, economic and diplomatic woes the Latin American country is also looking for a way out. Some local analysts say addressing the country's economic woes is key.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on Wednesday withdrew his acting charge d'affaires in Washington, Maximilien Arvelaiz, after waiting 18 months for the U.S. administration to approve his application to become ambassador.

Maduro withdrew Arvelaiz due to what he called "meddling" by his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama, who decided to extend his executive order for another year. The order labels alleged violations of human rights in Venezuela as "an unusual and extraordinary threat" to the U.S. security.

Furthermore, political troubles at home have further complicated matter. Political analyst Luis Delgado Jaramillo said that Obama's actions have emboldened Venezuela's opposition, which believes "Chavism" is now weak in the country for the first time in 17 years.

Delgado told Xinhua that Venezuelans are now seriously questioning the errors made by the current government.The opposition's Democratic Unity Roundtable (MUD) holds an absolute majority in Venezuela's National Assembly with 109 representatives out of 167. They are reviewing options ranging from forcing Maduro to quit or modifying the Constitution to shorten his time in office.

Their determination to bring Maduro down grew stronger when the Venezuelan government on Monday extended its state of economic emergency for another 60 days, citing "exceptional circumstances" as the reason.

Other factions of the opposition are seeking to rouse the Organization of the American States' (OAS) Inter-American Democratic Charter against Venezuela, which could exclude Venezuela from the hemispheric block.

Delgado said that the MUD has international support that should not be underestimated, including from the United States, Argentina's new government and the majority of the Brazilian Congress.

"In the last Mercosur meeting, Argentina's president Mauricio Macri called for Venezuela to leave the bloc," said the analyst.

Brazil's lawmakers are also pressuring President Dilma Rousseff to speak out against Venezuela, said Delgado.

However, Delgado believes that it will be difficult for these calls to see the light of day.

"The OAS is no longer how it was a few years ago when it was an area reserved for pro-American issues. Many OAS countries also do not agree with removing Maduro," said international analyst Jose Egido.

Egido said that time is also crucial for the opposition. There's a rush to get rid of Maduro because his new measures could lead to economic stability.

Thus, Egido says that the new government measures, created to confront the economic emergency decreed at the start of 2016, could help stabilize Venezuela, boost the government's ties with the private sector and reinforce Venezuela's efforts to cut world oil production.

However, both analysts believe that the opposition seems unable to unify on a way forward.

"They (the opposition) have chosen different and contradictory ways. Some are gathering signatures, others are seeking to activate the OAS' charter while yet more are seeking to modify the entire constitution through the national assembly," said Egido.

Just as the opposition has been strengthened by the government's previous mistakes, the government can now recover from its current situation by taking advantage of the opposition's weaknesses.

Analysts say the government should carry out a vast campaign to re-moralize the population, such as fighting corruption, reducing inflation and ending a dependency on oil exports.

Experts say Venezuela should focus on tackling economic issues like expanding its non-oil exports to partners like China, Russia, Iran and Cuba.

Analysts say that even though Venezuela is experiencing one of its worst bouts of economic turmoil, Maduro still has the support of over five million Venezuelans. This is key if Maduro and his government are to emerge out of the current crisis unscathed. Endi