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News Analysis: Coming weeks make-or-break for U.S. Republican presidential candidates

Xinhua, February 27, 2016 Adjust font size:

The next several weeks will be crucial for U.S. Republican presidential candidates as the primary season intensifies with "Super Tuesday" coming next week.

Outspoken billionaire business tycoon Donald Trump is now the undisputed front-runner after a string of wins. Analysts now admitted that they had underestimated Trump's unique ability to dominate the news cycle and his appeal to rank-and-file Republican voters who are frustrated with Washington's political elite.

Trump just clinched a landslide victory in Nevada earlier the week in addition to his wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, though he was just six months ago predicted to fade out quickly.

Trump has been able to tap into Americans' frustration over the economy, jobs and foreign policy like no other candidate, and could well clinch the nomination, experts said.

"He's on a strong path to the nomination," Republican strategist Ford O'Connell told Xinhua. "They've ignored him so long that he's become his own hurricane on the campaign trail."

While many analysts maintain that the game is not yet over, Trump's winning streak underscores a candidate who has constantly beaten analysts' predictions.

Some analysts have up until now dismissed the possibility of a Trump nomination, but now many say he has a serious chance of winning the Republican Party (GOP) nomination. Likewise, a new view of Trump is emerging in the media, with many pundits now beginning to come to the conclusion that Trump could beat his opponents.

The next couple of weeks will also be crucial to the campaigns of two other Republican candidates Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who suffered significant losses to Trump in Nevada's primary.

Indeed, next week marks "Super Tuesday" -- 13 states will vote or hold Caucuses -- followed by several primaries in March and April.

Dan Mahaffee, an analyst with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, told Xinhua that Trump has strong momentum coming out of three wins in a row, and if Trump continues to so effectively tap into the anger of the Republican grassroots, "he has a clear path to the nomination."

"I think Cruz is facing a harder challenge right now compared to Rubio, as he's failed to break out or finish a strong second in either state -- nor is Cruz likely to get any support from the establishment GOP that Rubio enjoys,"Mahaffee said.

"To beat Trump, Rubio needs the rest of the GOP field that is anti-Trump to coalesce around him ASAP. Trump has only won by pluralities, not majorities, which is one area that can still give Rubio hope," he said.

With the GOP nomination contest in full throttle, the next question is who among the candidates has the best chance at beating likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. While Rubio is considered to be the most electable in a general election, many experts warn not to underestimate Trump, who has proven to be full of surprises.

"I would say as of today Rubio has a better shot (at beating Clinton), but I am not sold that Trump is going to lose to Hillary in November," O'Connell said. "He's surprised a lot of people."

In order to beat Clinton, a former first lady and former U.S. Secretary of State, O'Connell said Trump needs to change the delivery of his vision.

"The general election is a different animal (than the primaries). He's a salesman delivering a vision, all he has to do is change how he sells it," he said.

Mahaffee said Trump faces an uphill battle against Clinton because of the makeup of the electorate in a presidential election year, with more minorities and women voters participating. But Trump gas also shown that he can repeatedly defy political conventional wisdom. Enditem