News Analysis: What factors affect peace negotiations in Libya?

Despite a "unity of purpose" among international players, diverging interests among Libyan factions and their respective regional allies remain strong, Italian analysts have said vis-a-vis the path to peace in the war-torn nation.

"So far, peace negotiations for Libya had been carried out by the United Nations(UN) only," said Gabriele Iacovino, analysts' coordinator with Rome-based Center for International Studies.

Representatives from 17 countries and four international organizations on Sunday pledged to support the rival Libyan factions, after they agreed to sign an UN-backed deal to form a national unity government on Dec. 16 in Morocco.

Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry co-chaired the high-level meeting, in the presence of UN Special Envoy for Libya Martin Kobler.

Could such a shift in the international community's position, and singing of the peace deal, really bring the Libyan four-year long civil war to an end?

"Turning this unity of purpose and good intentions into results will still be a problem, because all major obstacles to a real pacification remain on the ground," Iacovino said.

It was not clear whether the deal to be signed on Dec. 16 would be dissimilar to the one backed by the UN up to November, the analyst specified.

Since 2014, Libya has been divided between two administrations, the House of Representatives (HoR) based in the eastern city of Tobruk and the General National Congress (GNC), in Tripoli.

Meanwhile, the advance of the Islamic State (IS) in coastal areas of the country, and especially in the city of Sirte, has raised major concerns in the international community.

"The agreement for a unity government risks to remain on paper only," foreign affairs special correspondent Alberto Negri with Il Sole 24 Ore business-daily told Xinhua.

"It is hard to believe the Libyan representatives signing the UN-back deal on Wednesday would be able to form a government within 40 days, as recommended, and move it to Tripoli," he said.

Both experts stressed regional powers in the feuding Libyan factions had diverging interests.

As such, reconciliation could derail even after a national unity government is formed.

"I do not see why such interests would simply fade away," Negri said.

"As much as the unity government deal would be valuable for Libyans, regional players keep their positions and foster the Libyan armed factions, because no one is really forcing them to stop doing so," he said.

Libyans unwilling to compromise might be a minority, but they would still have weapons, and the power to decide what happens on the ground, the expert said.

Iacovino says the political process is indeed only one part of the Libyan crisis. "Libya does not lack a unity government only, but all institutional structures of a unified state. That means the political process must proceed in parallel with stabilization," he said.

The presence of IS in Libya was a major destabilizing factor. The group was believed to have 2,000 to 3,000 fighters in the country, according to a UN report submitted to the Security Council last month.

It was relevant not just in terms of terrorist threat, but also for the possible influence on the reconciliation process.

"Domestic extremists have been present for quite a long time in various areas in Libya. If the IS starts recruiting, we can foresee these forces would easily join," Negri explained.

However, Iacovino said the agreement due to be signed on Wednesday would be a starting point, "a framework within which negotiations must keep going on."

"Libya has many resources which are, unlike in Iraq, equally distributed across the three main provinces of the country. It means an equal division of powers and wealth among autonomous entities, within a unified country, is possible," he added. Enditem