News Analysis: Turkey's downing of Russian warplane risks spreading conflict

Concerns are growing about a widening conflict after Turkey shot down a Russian warplane on Tuesday in an area near the border with war-torn Syria.

In speeches made before his meeting with visiting Jordanian King Abdullah II in the Russian resort of Sochi, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the downing "a stab in the back from accomplices of terrorists," warning of "serious consequences for Russian-Turkish relations."

In a latest sign of indignation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov canceled a meeting with his Turkish counterpart slated for Wednesday in Istanbul.

As a matter of fact, Turkish-Russian ties have been strained ever since Moscow started bombing raids on the Islamic State (IS) targets inside Syria in late September, which Ankara described as operations mainly in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Ankara has been pushing for al-Assad's ouster even since Syria was plunged into chaos in March 2011.

Moscow's involve into the Syrian conflict had resulted in what Turkey called repeated breaches of its airspace by Russian planes and shelling of Turkmen villages lately in northern Syria, acts that had prompted Ankara to summon the Russian envoy to lodge a protest.

The downing of a Russian jet came at a critical time when Moscow is seen more as a potential partner in the ongoing battle against the IS in the West, in particular the United States and France, in the aftermath of a spate of terror attacks by the extremist group on Russian, Lebanese and French targets.

If Moscow opts to retaliate militarily, Washington and its European allies are bound to come to the rescue of Turkey, a NATO member state, a worst-case scenario Washington and its partners are unwilling to see.

Analysts who spoke to Xinhua described the latest incident as a "very dangerous element" bearing the potential to spread the conflict to a broader area. They called for Turkey and Russia to speed up diplomatic efforts for a way out.

"The parties should avoid further confrontations and should ease the tension," said Oytun Orhan, an expert on Syria with the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies.

"Ankara and Moscow should focus on diplomatic efforts to ameliorate their shattered relations," he stressed.

Mesut Hakki Casin from Ozyegin University said the episode should be discussed in the UN Security Council.

Noting that the Russian Su-24 warplane, like the one just shot down, has the capacity to carry 8,000 tons of bombs and is a very dangerous plane, he suggested that "the plane shouldn't fly over the border zone."

Ismail Hakki Pekin, former head of the intelligent unit of Turkey's Chief of Staff, urged Turkey and Russia to establish a military commission for an investigation into the alleged airspace violation and the jet's downing.

"So that, a fair investigation would be possible and the parties would have a chance to claim their rights within the context of law," he said.

In his view, Turkey's move to shoot down the Russian plane was a huge mistake, as the plane had taken no hostile act against Turkey other than violating its airspace.

"Turkish military officials should have warned the Russian plane in another way but not shoot down the plane," he remarked.

Orhan argued, however, said that Turkey's act was in line with the military rules of engagement as Ankara had repeatedly warned Moscow over the consequences of airspace breaches.

In his view, Russia's intervention into Syria is intended to clear the area from the Syrian opposition forces rather than targeting IS positions.

Turkey and Russia went to wars with each other many times over a period of some 200 years, but have enjoyed a rather smooth relationship for almost a hundred years now.

The two countries' total trade volume has long exceeded 50 billion U.S. dollars, and Turkey gets 75 percent of its natural gas needed at home from Russia.

Pekin argued that Turkey will be the one to suffer the most from a deteriorating relationship with Russia, as Ankara is aiming to increase its cooperation with Asian countries and join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that groups Moscow as well.

"What is important here is the fact that Turkey and Russia are not enemies," Casin also stressed.

He underlined the importance of cooperation between Russia and Turkey in fighting the IS and ending the war in Syria.

Otherwise, the conflict has the potential to spread across the region even further, he warned.

"The refugee crises would continue to dominate the world agenda and IS militants would continue to conduct terror attacks across the globe," Casin added.

The latest mishap in Ankara-Moscow ties have raised concerns and alarms around the world -- with some stock markets responding by ending low -- and surely will prompt a flurry of diplomatic initiatives seeking a peaceful solution. Endit