News Analysis: Single-party rule unlikely to help solve problems facing Turkey

The Justice and Development Party (AKP) made a comeback in Sunday's legislative polls. However, a single-party rule is unlikely to solve the problems facing Turkey, at least not in the short term, analysts said.

DEMANDS FOR STABILITY

The latest results show that the AKP has secured around 49.2 percent of the votes, which means it can obtain 317 seats in the 550-member parliament.

The surprising result, which conflicts with pre-election poll surveys, was attributed by analysts to a number of factors, including the AKP's new campaign strategy adopted following June's defeat; the party's renewed fighting with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK); a series of deadly attacks in the country and Russia's plunge into the Syrian conflict.

These developments reinstated a strong sense of insecurity across Turkey and increased their demands for stability, analysts said.

"In case of the high threat perception people tend to gather under the national flag," explained Mehmet Akif Okur, a scholar from Turkey's Gazi University.

The AKP, the sole rulers of Turkey since November 2002, lost its parliament majority for the first time in the June 7 elections.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, aiming to install a presidential system rather than the current parliamentary one, called for snap polls on November 1, following failed AKP coalition talks with opposition parties.

Once in power again, the AKP will prioritize the issue of a stronger presidential system, as stated by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu during his victory speech Sunday, analysts said.

"Turkey has entered into a new phase, which will be dominated by the discussions about the change of regime in favor of a presidential system," Okur told Xinhua, adding a referendum on constitutional changes will be on the agenda.

The AKP's intention of changing Turkey's 92-year-old parliamentary system sparked public outrage, with concerns over dictatorial rule anticipated from Erdogan's authoritarian precept.

"The AKP now has enough power to reinstate the issue on the country's political agenda," Murat Bilhan, a former ambassador and vice chairman of the Turkish Asian Center for Strategic Studies, told Xinhua.

URGENT PROBLEMS IN WAITING

The single-party government soon to be formed by the AKP has to face some urgent problems, warned analysts.

The considerable issue facing Turkey is the deep polarization pitting Turks against Kurds, secularists against Islamists, in addition to bitter disputes amongst political parties.

Analysts blame the rupture on Erdogan's policies and the AKP.

In Bilhan's view, Turkey will remain divided. "The polarization is a mechanism sustaining the AKP," he said.

Noting that the Turks are divided following Sunday's polls, with half supporting the AKP and half against the party and president, Bilhan urged the AKP not to "ignore those opposing its rule."

Analysts are not optimistic concerning the country's economy either, which saw robust growth in the early years of the AKP's rule, currently hovering around three percent in the past two years.

Turkey's economy has structural problems, argued Okur.

"The overall global stagnation affects Turkey too," he said. "In the long run, the AKP should implement the necessary economic reforms to develop further growth."

Turkey's foreign policy is also in shambles as stalled accession talks with the European Union (EU) and the ongoing conflict in neighboring Syria have loomed prominently.

"Turkey, with its inefficient foreign policy, is currently isolating itself from the rest of the world," stressed Bilhan.

In his view, Ankara should urgently amend its foreign policy, including its standpoint regarding the Syrian crisis, which has resulted in an endless exodus of refugees both to Turkey, neighboring countries and the EU states.

"Otherwise it will become impossible for Turkey to cooperate with the international community," Bilhan warned.

Erdogan has recently backtracked on the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, contemplating instead a political transition with the Syrian president.

With the EU looking toward Turkey for assistance regarding the refugee crisis in return for continued accession talks, analysts detect a possibility for Ankara to mend its damaged relations with the bloc - though not without tribulations. Endit