News Analysis: Japan faces backlash from farm lobbies as TPP's ratification faces numerous hurdles

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe believed the U.S.-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) accord reached on Monday after more than five years of negotiations would be in Japan's best interests, although failure to fully protect the nation's fragile agricultural sector will likely see a monumental backlash from powerful farm lobbies.

Abe, a day after negotiators concluded the deal in the southern U.S. city of Atlanta, following a final round of frenzied talks that for years had hit numerous stumbling blocks often ending at loggerheads, said the new deal would make for a richer Japan despite the fact that Tokyo is reluctant to fully eliminate tariffs, particularly on sectors synonymous with national interests which are often backed by powerful lobbies forcing political resolutions to safeguard their sectors.

Japan's potential increased access to Asian auto manufacturers for vehicles to be sold in the U.S. markets, but the future of Japan's agricultural sector, which has been a monumental sticking point throughout the entire negotiations as Japan tried to protect its key sectors spanning beef, pork, wheat, sugarcane, dairy products and rice, is now under threat.

Abe himself had promised not to abolish tariffs on its "sacred sectors," drawing accusations from other TPP countries that it was acting in a way that was in contrast to the "spirit of the TPP," and convinced powerful farm lobbies that import levies on overseas agricultural produce would remain disproportionately high to protect Japan's age-old industries, with the prime minister also committing to a resolution adopted in both chambers of parliament.

Abe will now have to grapple with the lobbies to find a workaround on the politically sensitive issue, which from a broad point of view could bring Japan whose economy contracted in the last quarter and is widely expected to contract in the future, a vital shot in the arm and bolster Abe's lofty "Abenomics 2.0" policy goals, but could also alienate the leader from a sizable, conservative support base ahead of upper house elections next year.

In anticipation of the fallout from the agricultural lobbies, Abe told a press conference Tuesday that "the nation has achieved the best possible outcome in line with our national interest," but was also quick to say he would put together a task force involving all of his cabinet members, specifically to deal with the anticipated backlash from the farm lobbies.

Japanese Economic Revitalization Minister and top TPP negotiator Akira Amari also said the deal, which in theory could see tariffs eliminated on 99.9 percent of sectors Japan has expertise in, spanning automobiles and auto parts, home appliances, industrial machinery and pharmaceuticals, was "strategically meaningful" for Japan, but was also quick to try and reassure lobbies that the effects on Japanese agriculture would be kept to a minimum and parliamentary resolutions "taken seriously," in his first press conference following the pact being made.

While ostensibly it would seem that the 12 Pacific-Rim member nations have reached a broad agreement, there remains, however, a number of hurdles ahead until the pact moves from paper to reality, with each country under similar pressure as Japan to allay concerns of lobbies also fearing certain sectors will be adversely affected if tariffs are eliminated, or jobs lost to more cost- effective manufacturing hubs.

Indeed, each country has to have its government ratify the deal, and leading economists are already suggesting that the pact is more about managed trade rather than free trade and have questioned the lack of transparency of the overall process, which may be a sizable sticking point for the public too, when details of the agreement are released prior to them being sent for ratification. Experts have also claimed that, along similar lines, not all the deals inked see tariffs eliminated following pledges made in earlier negotiations, with the details of the accord when they're presented to the public and Congress, likely to be a diluted version of the original grand vision.

Coupled with this, the timing of the pact coincides with the U. S. 2016 presidential campaign with both Democratic and Republican heavyweights already saying they would use their opposition to the TPP as fundamental parts of their campaigns; whether it be on concerns that the deal will only benefit Wall Street and big corporations who have sway over high-powered lobbyists, or be to the detriment of working class Americans, with these criticisms relevant to all member countries and not just the United States.

Skeptics to the pact in Japan have also suggested that the upcoming presidential campaign in the United States, coupled with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper's reelection vote this month, had, despite a broad agreement already being hugely delayed, unnecessarily forced the premature inking of the pact, despite major differences still existing between member countries, meaning that the pact agreed upon has been glossed over with a number of key agreements yet to be fully made.

The TPP, which involves Japan, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam, if ratified would account for 40 percent of global gross domestic product and more than 30 percent of global trade, with leading economists stating that combined growth would be worth in access of 28 trillion U.S. dollars. Endi