News Analysis: Egypt tiptoes along 3-stage roadmap awaiting final dash

The weakness of Egyptian major political parties due to inner conflicts and divisions is unlikely to produce a powerful and influential parliament in the near future, said Egyptian political experts.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi promised earlier in August a new parliament by the end of 2015, and the country's Supreme Election Commission announced the start of the long-awaited parliamentary polls inside the country on October 18.

Electing a new parliament is the third and final phase of a three-stage roadmap, including presidential election and a new constitution, announced by Egypt's new leadership on the removal of former Islamist President Mohamed Morsi.

INNER CONFLICTS

As the countdown is ticking for the elections, Egyptian political parties, including those established following the 2011 revolution that toppled Mubarak, are sinking in a sea of internal conflicts and divisions that undermine the future political life in the most populous Arab country.

Al-Wafd Party, one of the oldest parties in Egypt, is suffering from a real internal crisis due to inability to contain its internal conflicts among three groups competing over its leadership.

Newly-established Al-Dostour Party has faced a conflict between two groups over the party's position on the president, which eventually led to the resignation of the party leader.

Leader of the Egyptian Democratic Party tried to resign earlier for similar disagreements, and the list goes on and on.

Opposition in Egypt has declined since the new leadership launched its "anti-terrorism war" following Morsi's removal by the army in July 2013 and the following massive security crackdown on his supporters.

"The general political circumstances and the country's anti-terror war created inner conflicts in parties like Al-Dostour on whether to support the country's leadership at the expense of freedoms and rights, besides other finance problems," Khaled Dawoud, spokesperson of Al-Dostour Party, told Xinhua.

Dawoud argued that the delay of parliamentary polls for a couple of years, the alleged limitation of freedoms and silencing of pro-democracy voices weakened the political life in Egypt and forced emerging political parties to retreat.

"My general impression is that the coming parliament will not be influential enough to make a change in the Egyptian political life," the politician lamented, blaming the new election law as well for limiting chances of competition in the upcoming election.

ELECTION LAW

The new election law provides 80 percent of the 540 seats for individual candidates and the remaining 120 seats for party lists, which has disappointed most political parties who believe that the law opens door for wealthy people and business tycoons to compete and dominate the parliament.

"The election law does not encourage political parties as it is based on the individual system rather than the proportional list system, which does not allow parties to have any influence," said Hassan Nafaa, professor of political sciences at Cairo University.

Nafaa told Xinhua that even the lists that represent only 20 percent of the seats include the marginalized categories like women, Copts, people with special needs, etc, which also limits the chances for political parties.

"The main reason for the issues inside political parties is that the state does not have the desire to encourage them," Nafaa added, arguing that the country is currently leading a period of "political dredging" with security apparatuses having the upper hand in the country's political life.

POLITICAL MONEY RULES

Egyptian political parties have been marginalized over the past few decades and they started to rise after Mubarak was toppled in 2011, but the nature of the current anti-terror war affected their freedom and led to their decline.

In light of the new election law and the weakness of political parties, business tycoons have golden chances to dominate the individual seats directly or indirectly by financing other candidates to be their blocs inside the parliament.

"I believe the coming parliament is likely to be dominated by political money, where tycoons through their men in the parliament control the political scene, undermining political life in Egypt," Ahmed Eliba, researcher at the Cairo-based Regional Center for Strategic Studies, told Xinhua.

Eliba said that political parties in Egypt have always been suffering from problems in terms of their structure and development, and that their unawareness of real partisan life eventually led to their unpopularity.

"The post-2011 parties were unable to attract the masses due to the large gap between their concerns and those of the people," the researcher continued, arguing the parties also have been unable to cope with the rapid political changes in the country over the past four years of political chaos. Enditem