Italy's parliamentary landscape shifting as controversial reform of Senate approaches

The parliamentary landscape is shifting in Italy as a crucial vote over a controversial reform of Italy's Senate moves closer, but expert analysts say Prime Minister Matteo Renzi would do well to focus on potential rifts in his own party.

The parliamentary reform Renzi is pushing for would dramatically reshape Italy's legislature, which exists in its current form since 1948. The reform is expected to be voted on soon after parliament returns from its summer break Sept. 8.

Italy's parliament is unusual in that its two houses are fully independent but have identical rights and powers, a concept called "perfect bicameralism." If Renzi's reform passes, the supper house, the Senate, will be downgraded to a kind of consultative body made up of local and regional representatives and a handful of appointees.

Renzi argues the changes would cut costs and make it easier to pass legislation. Opposition comes from the Senate itself, which must vote to pass the reform, and from some corners that say a true bicameral legislature acts as a safeguard against bad proposals becoming law.

The prime minister will need support beyond his traditional allies to pass the reform. That is where the changing landscape comes into play.

Supporters of comedian-turned-activist Beppe Griillo - who have stood in opposition since taking 54 seats of 315 seats in the Senate and 109 of 630 seats in the lower house in the last elections in 2013 - now say they are "ready to govern." If they make a play for more influence it is not clear how that will play out.

And a group of ten senators formerly allied with billionaire former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi have broken away to form a splinter group led by Senator Denis Verdini, once a key Berlusconi lieutenant. The Verdini group has said it will support Renzi's reform plans.

"The Verdini offer is a difficult one because on the one hand, it gets Renzi closer to the majority he needs but on the other the presence of Verdini will raise uncomfortable questions among Renzi's own supporters," Alessandro Campi, director of the Political Institute at the University of Perugia.

"In the end," Campi continued, "I think the real game is within Renzi's own party. He cannot afford to lose support there. That is where he should be focusing."

Giovanni Orsina, an expert in Italian politics with LUISS University in Rome, agreed.

Orsina said that due to falling approval levels and unrest within his party, Renzi's position is weaker now than it has been at any other time since he took power in early 2013. But he still benefits from a lack of viable alternatives.

"It is true that the reform is a big priority and that there are changes going on between the various political factions," Orsina said. "But another factor is that it is August, when everyone is on vacation, and without much happening in the country some things seem to take on an exaggerated importance. At least some of this issue is probably gossip." Endit