Africa Focus: Rising El Nino may disrupt food security in Africa: scientists

The rising El Nino threat caused by the impact of extreme weather events could disrupt food production across the world particularly in Africa, scientists warned on Wednesday.

In a joint statement received in Nairobi, scientists with Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) predict that by 2050, maize and bean production in Africa could decline up to 40 percent due to increased temperatures.

"Unless farmers in places like sub-Saharan Africa are able to adapt to the impact of climate change, we will not achieve the level of stability and sustainable development that is absolutely essential to the success of any effort that seeks to curb greenhouse gas emissions," said James Kinyangi, CGIAR's East Africa program leader on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).

Climate change is the biggest threat that modern agriculture has ever encountered, Kinyangi added.

Scientists warn that substantial reductions in forage and heat stress could greatly reduce the productivity of livestock, which millions of Africans depend upon for food, income and fertilizer.

"And of the world's 33 fisheries that are most at risk of being damaged by climate change, 23 are in Africa," they said.

CCAFS Director, Bruce Campbell, also pointed out that the recent warnings about El Nino's potential impacts provide an unfortunate demonstration of how quickly they can affect food production and food prices, particularly, in vulnerable areas like sub-Saharan Africa.

"Climate change is already making food production more challenging in many parts of Africa," he added, "so any effects from an El Nino, which can develop if sea surface temperatures increase by just one degree above average, could just intensify those problems."

An El Nino is the appearance of warm sea surface temperature in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru and Ecuador.

El Ninos are recurrent weather phenomena. They occur approximately every four to seven years, and usually last between 12 and 18 months. The last four El Ninos, including the current one, however, have taken place every two to three years.

Scientist have been urging governments across the world to pay more attention to the connection between climate change and agriculture, as they argue that the agricultural activities and its associated land use changes contribute about a quarter of the world's greenhouse gases.

They call for efforts to help farmers both adapt to challenges caused by climate change and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Over the last ten years, discussions over agriculture issues has made little progress in the climate talks. Thanks to years of appeals from agriculture experts to pay more attention to farming, the issue will be on the agenda at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change summit scheduled for December in Paris.

Kinyangi revealed that these issues include the need for early warning systems and contingency planning for extreme weather events to help regions that have suffered a food crisis, like the African Sahel and Horn of Africa.

For the early warning system to truly take effect, CCAFS scientists said it must be coupled with effective communication efforts thus the warnings can be received in the arid and semi- arid drought-prone lands of Africa.

"We need to make sure our technical advice can produce a response on the ground because we have seen situations before, including in the Horn of Africa, where there was ample warning of a food crisis brewing, but a costly delay in response time," said Kevin Coffey, a researcher at Columbia University, who led the CCAFS review of early warning systems.

According to the scientists, the early warning system coupled with early action plans should be the focus of Africa's adaptation agenda regarding effects on agriculture by climate change, and they should be supported by specific protocols and funding streams established in agreements. Endi