Roundup: Challenges loom as Iraq forces gear up to fight IS

As the Iraqi government is preparing to announce more major offensives to regain cities and towns from Islamic State (IS) militant group, the extremist group surprised the Iraqi forces and allied militias with war of attrition and pre-emptive attacks.

The liberation of Salahudin provincial capital city of Tikrit late in March, the military success was seen as the beginning of a series of IS pull back from Iraqi cities, but the extremist group continued its attacks on the security forces and allied militias in the country's largest oil refinery of Baiji in north of Tikrit, as well as major attacks in the heartland of Sunni Arabs in Iraq's western province of Anbar.

It is clear that Daash (IS group) shows its insistence in fighting the government troops and sometimes defeats them, while the troops are struggling to repel the attacks which the IS chooses their time and place.

The IS military strategy focuses on gaining territories, in particular in Sunni Arab areas, but they also focus of areas that would give the group self-sufficiency, such as fighting to capture oil refineries, oil fields, water resources, dams (for power and water).

This is what happened in Baiji oil refinery, some 200 km north of Baghdad, the extremist militants repeatedly attacked the refinery and they fought fierce clashes to seize the oil fields of Ajil and Allas in east of Tikrit.

Previously, the small Ajil oilfield was one of the important financial resources to fund the IS militant group which extracts about 10,000 barrels per day and convey them by some 300 tanker trucks to others areas in Nineveh province and IS-held areas in Syria.

In Anbar province, the IS group has seized most of Iraq's largest province and since June last year it tried to advance toward the edges of Baghdad, but several counter attacks by security forces and Shiite militias have pushed them back.

Last month, the IS militants repeatedly carried out attacks in the partially seized provincial capital city of Ramadi, some 110 km west of Baghdad, and gained more ground in northern, eastern and central parts of the city, pushing the Iraqi government to send reinforcement troops to the city to regain ground in some of the city districts.

The latest successes of IS militants in Anbar came after the Iraqi security forces made a significant victory in Salahudin province when they freed Tikrit.

Observers believe that the IS attacks in Anbar were a response to the government advance in Tikrit, just like the battles in Baiji oil refinery, Allas and Ajil oil fields which were also seen as a response to the government accomplishment in Tikrit.

The IS group in Anbar proved that it has the maneuverability to carry out major attacks across the Sunni province of Anbar despite the U.S.-led coalition and Iraqi aircraft.

The IS attacks in Ramadi also sparked a wave of displacement among the residents of Anbar and forced dozens of thousands to resort to Baghdad. the large number of displaced citizens are added to more people displaced earlier from their homes in the provinces of Nineveh, Salahudin, Diyala and parts of Kirkuk.

According to UN figures, at least 2.7 million Iraqis have been displaced since January 2014, including 400,000 from Anbar province, making the Iraq crisis one of the most complex humanitarian emergencies in the world today.

The displacement phenomenon itself is embarrassing for the government of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and could lead to division inside his cabinet, as the painful situations of the displaced families and the lack of assistance to them would push some the Sunni politicians and officials to criticize his Shiite-led government.

The displacement would also deepen sectarian division between the Sunni and Shiite communities, as the Sunnis were angered for being humiliated by the government which in one of its measures against the displaced Sunni people of Anbar was to provide guarantor to allow them to enter Baghdad.

However, liberation of Anbar province will be more complex and difficult than the recapture of Tikrit, as the province has long been a hub for powerful Sunni insurgency. Its geographic complexity, expansive deserts and multiple borders made its security task the most difficult.

As for the military tactics used by the IS group in their attacks, Brigadier General Abdullah al-Jubouri, a military expert, said "the IS military tactics usually include campaign of terrorist attacks on its target, then infiltrate the population and the defending forces, gradually gain control of some areas of the target, and then launch an assault on the rest of the target."

"This is what happened many times when they seized Mosul and many other cities and towns across Iraq," Jubouri said.

He said the IS group is not expected to seize open land especially without rugged terrain for fear of U.S.-led coalition and Iraqi airstrikes. They, therefore, focus of urban areas, particularly the Sunni areas to exploit the sectarian division and the hatred between the Shiite and Sunni communities.

However, Jubouri warned that "it doesn't mean that Daash would never fight in open land. They will when they become close to significant target like the battles in the land between the town of Garma, which located some 40 km west of Baghdad."

The complicated situation in Iraq would entail better and effective configuration of Iraqi forces from the security forces, Hashd Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization, and Sunni tribes in both provinces of Anbar and Salahudin.

But the sectarian division in Iraq created a degree of distrust between the Shiite-led government and the Sunni community in the predominantly Sunni provinces.

The Sunnis believe that a large presence of Sunni paramilitaries within the Hashd Shaabi or even separately is necessary to reduce the fears of the Sunni residents of possible burning and looting to their homes by the Shiite militias based on sectarian and revenge motives like what happened in Salahudin's Tikrit, Dour and other towns and villages. Endit