News Analysis: IS-related shooting in Texas could signal start of more terror attacks on U.S. soil

Radical Islamist group Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility for a gun attack in the U.S. state of Texas, which indicates the group has breached the walls of U.S. security by using social media to galvanize its sympathizers to launch terror attacks.

On Sunday, two gunmen in Texas opened fire on a contest to draw cartoon pictures of Prophet Muhammad. Any depiction of Muhammad is considered blasphemous in Islam, and terror groups like IS intend to punish such acts by murdering the perpetrators.

Despite that IS has previously threatened to attack the United States, the shooting on Sunday marked the first time it actually inspired or even had a hand in pulling off an attack on the U.S. soil.

Indeed, the Islamist militants posted messages for a week before the event on global social media site Twitter, referencing January's massacre in Paris that killed several French journalists at Charlie Hebdo, a publication that had published cartoons of Muhammad. The Twitter messages said it was time for "brothers" in the United States to take part in the violence.

Information continues to trickle out that appears to point to communications between the gunmen and Twitter handles allegedly run by IS militants.

On Tuesday, IS has claimed responsibility for the attack on its official radio channel and threatened further strikes on the United States.

"We say to the defenders of the cross, the United States, that future attacks are going to be harsher and worse. The Islamic State soldiers will inflict harm on you with the grace of God. The future is just around the corner," reported U.S. media, quoting the radicals.

The incident begs the question of whether the Texas shooting is the start of more such attacks, as IS has vowed to carry out.

Sunday's shooting happened amid a growing threat from IS, which is seeing its numbers and influence swell as new recruits from countries worldwide join its ranks.

Many would-be jihadists see IS as the rock stars of Islamist violence, and some experts said admirers see IS' success in overtaking vast swaths of Iraq and Syria as a result of divine intervention.

"The greatest IS-related (threat) in the United States and Europe may stem not so much from returnees (Westerners who have fought alongside IS and returned home), but rather from those who either feel it is too difficult to reach IS-held territory from the United States or other target countries or prefer to carry out high profile IS-inspired attacks at home on their own," Wayne White, former deputy director of the State Department's Middle East Intelligence Office, told Xinhua.

Ironically, government policies in the United States and the West to prevent aspiring IS recruits from leaving -- while justified -- probably increase the likelihood of IS-inspired attacks at home, White said.

Fearing the possibility of being caught before accomplishing anything, militants driven by IS propaganda could come to view violence at home as potentially more successful, he said.

"If a number of IS-inspired militants in the United States opt for local action, they may be potentially more dangerous than their European counterparts because firearms are far easier to obtain legally or illegally in the United States," he said.

Colin P. Clarke, associate political scientist with RAND Corporation, told Xinhua that there is a difference between radical Islam, the radicalization process, and those who actually make the leap to taking action.

Many people become radicalized but never actually attack. So it is necessary for policy makers to think about what pushes people over the edge and catalyzes them to either attack, or provide support to attackers, Clarke said.

"Radical Islam is an ideology and thus, knows no borders or boundaries. While the United States has always been adept at the kinetic aspects of counter-terrorism, one area where we've consistently come up short is in countering the narrative," Clarke said.

"The ideology of groups like IS and al-Qaida is still very appealing to a small minority of Muslims in the United States, despite the horrific acts of violence perpetrated by these groups," he said.

It should be top priorities for U.S. law enforcement and the intelligence community to figure out what makes this ideology so appealing, Clarke said.

Only once the factors and variables that motivate these individuals and groups are identified, he added, can there be a logical, evidence-based plan to counter the threat. Endi