News analysis: Bayern waiting for Guardiola's special idea

No other duel will influence Bayern Munich's future as much as the semifinal of the 2014/2015 Champions League against FC Barcelona does. Nothing less than the future of the "project Pep Guardiola" is to be decided. On top the future of a squad that so far has been regarded as the best in the club history.

The options are clear: If Bayern were eliminated, it would be discussed if the 44-year-old Guardiola continues to work as a coach for the 2015 German Champion and next season start a third attempt to win the most important trophy in World's club football. And it would affect the future of the team's structure and the future of players like Alonso, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Mario Goetze and others.

Despite the sidelined key figures Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, Bayern in the first leg against the Spanish giant this Wednesday night is keen to avoid that the duel is already decided after the first match.

After all, Bayern's squad faces the best attacking squad in world's football in person of Messi, Neymar and Luis Suarez (worth 108 scored goals this season so far). Everything, starting with a 0-2, would be regarded by the Germans as deadly backlog. A draw would be seen as a helpful result followed by narrow 0-1 or 1-2 defeats, which at least would leave space to strike back in the second leg in the Munich arena in a week's time.

As far as mastermind Guardiola is concerned Bayern expects a genius match plan from the Barcelona-born Spaniard who is facing the most emotional game in his carrier.

He has been working for Barcelona 22 years as a player and coach, winning an impressive record of 14 titles as a coach. Two years after Guardiola left Barcelona, the Spanish club is still relying on Guardiola's work done until 2012.

In the first leg Guardiola, who did 47 internationals for Spain's national team as a player, will have to solve fundamental problems such as the one in Bayern's midfield, Alonso, Schweinsteiger, Lahm and Thiago have not been in best shape lately, and on top the striker position up front.

Robert Lewandowski will play with a specially designed mask to protect his head after the Polish forward suffers from a serious injury since the semifinal of the German Cup against Borussia Dortmund.

Bayern's goal in Barcelona is to stay safe in the back at first and hope for the second leg and the possible return of injured French striker Franck Ribery in order to have more tactical options. Lewandowski will be ready for action, which is an important point, as the striker can keep the ball and open space for counter-attacks after winning the ball.

Due to Bayern's injury problems, defender Holger Badstuber is sidelined as well as midfielder David Alaba, Barcelona is the favorite in the duel. Some regard Bayern's chances at approximately 40:60 to beat Barcelona in aggregate. Others do not expect Bayern Munich to have a realistic chance as Barcelona is in best shape at present.

Bayern itself puts its hope on a strong defense and Guardiola's ideas.

Bayern's campaign in this season's Champions League will help to decide if Guardiola continues as Bayern's coach. The club might invest up to 100 million euros in new players when Guardiola agrees to stay longer than 2016.

So far, at least when it comes down to titles, Guardiola's time in Munich was not overwhelmingly successful. Guardiola himself said, only the "treble" (German title, German Cup and the Champions League) would be "enough" .

Behind Bayern's ambitions and Guardiola's stands the plans to strengthen Bayern's role in international football including merchandising profits and gain new TV contracts in the United States and Asia.

But German pundits, such as Lothar Mattaeus and Stefan Effenberg, and Spanish media assume that Guardiola will leave Bayern in 2016, maybe earlier. Effenberg (35 internationals for Germany) and Matthaeus (150) criticized Guardiola for his tactics and line-up, saying the Spaniard changes tactics too often and was not lucky with his substitutions lately.

"Guardiola has been double-crossed by Carlo Ancelotti last season in the semifinal of the Champions League," Effenberg said. Spanish newspapers see the 44-year-old Guardiola losing his sovereignty under high pressure.

Mario Goetze is expected to get one more year to develop as the 2014 World Champion plays a rather disappointing role in Bayern's team so far. Schweinsteiger will have to decide if he stays in Munich or continues his carrier abroad, the United States was among possible destinations.

And as far as Spanish midfielder Alonso is regarded, the 33-year-old seems to have reached a critical point due to his age.

No doubt: Bayern had impressive results in this season's Champions League campaign such as the 7-1 over AS Rome or the 7-0 over Donetsk, which are the fruits of Guardiola's intense work. But the Spaniard and his club need to win the Champions League to be satisfied to a full extend.

"I am proud to be coach of these players who have been working that hard, they are my heroes," Guardiola said knowing expectations on him are high.

Bayern's possible first eleven:

Neuer - Rafinha, Benatia, Boateng, Bernat - Alonso, Schweinsteiger, Lahm, Thiago - Mueller - Lewandowski. Enditem