News Analysis: Center Party emerges as likely winner in Finnish parliamentary election

With two days to go before the Finnish parliamentary election, a victory by the Center Party looks almost certain, as the party has been leading various polls for months.

The Center Party has obtained a 24 percent backing in recent polls, whereas the National Coalition Party, the Social Democratic Party(SDP) and the Finns Party have all been hovering between 15 to 17 percent, contending for the runner-up position.

The National Coalition, known as a conservative party in Finland, has been leading the current government since 2011. The Center Party, with 35 seats in the 2011 election, has been the opposition for four years.

Analysts believe the Center Party may occupy about 50 seats in the coming election, and thus become the biggest party in the parliament.

The rise of the Center Party has been seen more as a result of the party leader Juha Sipila being a new face than that of the centrist policies.

Provided the Center Party wins, Sipila will be assigned to form a new government. The composition of the coalition would depend on the success of other parties, and also greatly on their willingness to cooperate and on the extent to which they agree on policies.

A clear split has been seen over the security matters.

In a debate aired on television on Wednesday, centrist Sipila and the SDP leader Antti Rinne both dismissed the view that Russia was a threat to Finland. Conservative Prime Minister Alexander Stubb meanwhile defended Defence Minister Carl Haglund, who has openly described Russia as a threat.

The Finns Party leader Timo Soini did not criticize Haglund directly, but underlined the importance of a joint line in foreign policy. Earlier on Wednesday, PresidentSauli Niinisto publicly warned against damaging the country's relations with Russia.

A consensus has prevailed among most parties on the need to reduce government spending, but the envisaged scale has been wide apart. At a debate of the national broadcaster Yle on Thursday, Sipila said the demand of the conservatives to save 6 billion euros (6.45 billion U.S. dollars) in four years was too much and a longer period is needed. Sipila was backed by the Social Democrats.

Although a likely prime minister, Sipila has left many questions unanswered. He is a first term Member of Parliament and rose to party chairman in the wake of the major losses of the party in the 2011 election.

The media has noted that political debate has been avoided during this campaign, as other parties do not want to antagonize Sipila in fear of diminishing chances of getting into the next government.

A Finnish voter faces the problem that he or she cannot vote for clear alternative in terms of who will govern. The composition of coalition governments is subject to political talks after the election and parties often choose not to exclude anything feasible during the campaign.

The voting is even more baffling because most parties offer candidates of variable ideological choices on their lists.

Finland does not have a one-MP-per-constituency system known in many countries. Instead, each constituency will elect a number of MPs based on the population. In this system, the parties tend to offer a selection of candidates attractive to the widest possible segment of voters in each constituency.

The advance polling from April 8 to 14 witnessed a higher turnout than the previous election in 2011. A poll commissioned by the national broadcaster Yle indicates the percentage of people voting could finally reach nearly 75 percent. That would be the highest since 2000. Enditem