News Analysis: Zionist Union or Likud, who will rule future Israel?

To vote for the status quo or to vote for a change? This is a question which many Israeli voters have struggled with till they go to the polls next Tuesday.

The top two favorites in the upcoming elections are the opposition center-left Zionist Union, led by corporate lawyer Issac Herzog, and the right-wing Likud party, whose leader Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been in power since 2009.

Polls show that among the voters who have made their mind, the Zionist Union, composed of the Labor and the Hatnua parties, is maintaining a narrow lead over the Likud.

It is widely believed that if the Zionist Union keeps the lead till the election day, it would emerge as the winner of the biggest number of seats in the Knesset (parliament) and hence the opportunity to be named by the Israeli president to form the new cabinet.

With the showdown only away in days, observers here predict calls for change may prevail this time around.

ZIONIST UNION WIDENING LEAD

The early elections were called in December last year by Netanyahu after he fired Justice Minister Zipi Livni, leader of the Hatnua, and Finance Minister Yair Lapid, leader of the Yesh Atid party.

Netanyahu formed an uneasy ruling coalition with the center-left parties, Hatnua and Yesh Atid, and two ultra right-wing parites after winning reelection in the January 2013 elections.

The coalition had been on the edge of breaking up for a few times due to conflicting stances of coalition members on issues such as tax hikes and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

At the beginning of the campaign, the Likud enjoyed a comfortable lead in various opinion polls, leading many pundits to predict that Netanyahu's election for a new term was almost a foregone conlusion.

The trend, however, was bucked not long after Herzog and Livni formed the Zionist Union, which ran neck in neck with the Likud in many polls.

Compared to Netanyahu who focuses on security issues, the Zionist Union campaigns on socio-economic issues, such as the high cost of living and the housing crisis, and calls for the restart of peace talks with the Palestinians and improvment of strained relations with the U.S. government.

"In this election cycle, we see for the first time that socio-economic issues are giving a head-to-head fight to the security and diplomatic issues what were always at the center of Israeli politics," Revital Amiran, a political science expert and analyst, told Xinhua.

As reflected by the polls, voters care more about socio-economic issues than security in this elections.

"In the past six years of his rule, Netanyahu has led a very harsh neo-liberal agenda, and this had greatly affected many people," Amiran explained.

According to polls published Friday, the Zionist Union would gain 25 seats in the 120-seat one-chamber parliament, against 21 for the Likud, widening its lead over the latter from one seat one week ago to four.

In an interview with a local media outlet Thursday, Netanyahu admitted that there is a real danger for the Likud to lose the elections.

DAUNTING TASK TO FORM RULING COALTION

As shown by history of Israeli elections, however, winning the largest number of the votes doesn't necessarily guarantee a party's ability to form a government.

Namely, if the Zionist Union emerges as the biggest winner of parliamentary seats but fails to form a ruling coalition after the elections, the Likud still enjoys a chance to be nominated by President Reuven Rivlin to form a cabinet if it can prove it is able to do so.

Arye Mekel, a senior research fellow of Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv, said that the Zionist Union and the Likud, as the two biggest parties, should form a broad unity government after the elections rather than being hijacked by smaller parties.

"The coalition partners will demand a steep price in terms of cabinet portfolios and concrete policies. This situation will make the next government's operation difficult, whie the ministers try to pull the cabinet blanket into their corners," he wrote in an op-ed piece on The Jerusalem Post.

In the 2009 elections, the Kadima party won the highest number of parliamentary seats, one more than the Likud's, but Livni, then leader of the party, had to concede the right to form a cabinet to Netanyahu after failing to pull together a ruling coalition.

A similar scenario may occur if the Zionist Union fails to form a coalition supported by 61 lawakers, a simple majority of the parliament, as required by election law.

Obersvers believe centrist parties and religious parties could be kingmakers since it is more comfortable for them to sit in a cabinet led by the center-left Zionist Union than extremists from the right.

As the centrist Kulanu party has indicated its unwillingness to be part of the leftist coalition, they predict, the Zionist Union, if emerging as the biggest winner of the votes, may have to woo moderate religious parties, such as the Shas party.

FAR-REACHING IMPLICATIONS

If voters vote the center-left Zionist Union into power, far-reaching changes may happen to the domestic and foreign policies pursued by the outgoing government.

Tackling socio-economic issues and mending strained relations with the U.S. government are expected to be top priorities of the new government.

Livni, co-leader of the Zionist Union, said in an interview with the local media Thursday that winning the elections by the Union will stop the "diplomatic tsunami" hitting Israel.

Another noticeable change expected to take place in Israeli political landscape after the elections is the rise of Arab parties.

After the threshold for parties to enter the parliament was raised from 2 percent to 3.25 percent in early 2014, Israel's Arab parties were forced to run under a joint list.

Polls have showed that the alliance would get around 13 seats, making it a major force in the parliament. Endit