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Italian economic recovery to consolidate in 2015: study

Xinhua, February 5, 2015 Adjust font size:

Recovery of the Italian economy will consolidate in 2015 and continue in the coming years, according to a study conducted by the Prometeia think tank and presented here on Wednesday.

Preliminary results of the last months of 2014 were not entirely positive, Prometeia noted. A drop in industrial production recorded in September and October obscured November's positive rebound, while caution of bank lending policies also continued at the end of last year.

However, the collapse of oil prices, euro-U.S. dollar exchange depreciation and expansive monetary policy (Quantitative Easing) registered over the last three months will add up to the factors supporting recovery, the Bologna-based think tank underlined.

Although the last seven years have significantly modified the behavior patterns of Italian householders and firms, thus positive effects will be slower than in the past, the size of expansive impulse will finally overcome the economic crisis legacy, according to Prometeia.

The think tank estimated Italy's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.7 percent on average in 2015, with 1.3 percent growth in the last quarter. Inflation was forecast to remain very low throughout this year and 0.2 percent down on average.

The Italian recovery will be driven by exports and consumption, while investments will grow more gradually, according to the study, which estimated expansionary effects to be strengthened in the next years and GDP growth to remain on a similar pace until the end of 2017.

According to Prometeia, employment will restart growing, also thanks to new measures introduced by the government of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi to reduce the tax burden on companies, although unemployment rate will be still above 11 percent in 2017. Enditem