Interview: French presidential race indicates weakening of traditional parties, says analyst

The French presidential race indicated the weakening of the country's traditional governing camps, which are the two main parties, the Socialist Party and the Republicans, a French political analyst has said.

French political scientist Olivier Rouquan made the remarks during an interview with Xinhua, just days before the first round of voting of the presidential elections that was scheduled for April 23, 2017.

"We see clearly that their two candidates Benoit Hamon and Francois Fillon have been weakened: the probabilities are low for the socialist candidate to reach the second round of voting. And they are not at all certain for the candidate from the Republicans," he explained.

According to Rouquan, the weakness of the governing parties, whatever the outcome of the vote, shows the weakening of "the traditional way of doing politics in France," thus raising a strong expectation to renew political personnel and the way of political functioning.

The weakening of the governing parties during this election campaign could conclude, according to the analyst, with an unprecedented situation which would pit a populist candidate like Marine Le Pen against an unexpected candidate who comes from neither the Republicans or the Socialists.

Such a scenario would have strong effects, notably during the legislative elections, Rouquan said, "there could be a turn-over in the National Assembly and the government which would follow. And a reorganization of the political game would be happening. This is what this presidential campaign represents."

Rouquan indicated that in the case of an uncertain parliamentary majority and out of sync with the presidential majority, the prime minister, responsible for the unity of the government and its supervision in regard to the more autonomous representatives, "could become the central figure."

This would lead to a phase of "governmentalism and not presidentialism. The time has perhaps come therefore to recognize that presidentialism is no longer the institutional solution capable of consolidating the democracy," he said.

The political scientist also explained the rise of the extreme right force by the same desire to renew the political game which is "founded on a very strong discontent regarding the traditional parties and their leaders."

The second element that explains this rise, according to the analyst, was the underlying discontent that grew out of a deep crisis that was economic, social and even cultural, all at the same time. "This has encouraged the candidates who make simplistic proposals, notably the populists," he said.

The climate around the scandals which have tainted the election campaign has also encouraged a protest vote against the traditional political class, making for an analogy between the political class and continued corruption, added Rouquan.

According to him, it is this contentious climate which has led to the drive for renewal, leading to high levels of uncertainty. "People are less attached and less faithful to a large party or even to a political camp. Thus, they change, and that translates into a shift in their points of reference and their wish to change the system," the analyst said. Endit