Spotlight: Turkey weighs own strategies after U.S. strike on Syria

Turkey's hopes to boost its own plans following recent U.S. strike on a Syrian air base are likely to go unfulfilled, as the U.S. plans for safe zones in Syria would run against Turkish interests, analysts here said.

"The information, images revealed following the attack make one think the U.S. and Russia are involved, so to speak, in a sham fight," Cahit Armagan Dilek, director of the 21st Century Turkey Institute, told Xinhua.

The U.S. fired last Friday 59 cruise missiles at the Shayrat air base near Homs from its warships in the Mediterranean.

The strike came in response to an alleged chemical attack near rebels-held Idlib which, the U.S. claimed, was carried out by a Syrian jet that had taken off from the targeted air base.

As soon as Washington indicated a military response following the chemical attack last Tuesday, top Turkish officials eagerly voiced readiness to do its part in a military action against the Syrian government.

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called last weekend for follow-up U.S. military strikes, arguing the Syrian regime should be ousted.

A transition government should be put in place in Syria, Turkey's top diplomat said, adding the U.S. intervention would be no more than a cosmetic one unless it is supported by further military action.

Turkey had actively backed rebel groups fighting to topple the Syrian government until last summer when it started to repair ties with Russia, a staunch ally of Damascus.

The U.S. will apparently not focus on unseating Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as Turkey hopes for, but mixed signals keep coming from Washington about how it views his regime.

"It's important that we keep our priorities straight, and we believe that the first priority is the defeat of ISIS," U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Saturday, referring to the Islamic State.

The top U.S. diplomat once again expressed hope for bringing the parties in the civil war to the table for peace talks, which he said should include the Syrian government and its allies.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer said Monday, however, that the U.S. would again hit Syria if the Syrian military uses toxic gases and barrel bombs against civilians.

The fact that U.S. officials said Russia had been informed of the attack on Shayrat beforehand has raised doubts about it being a controlled crisis between the rival powers.

U.S. President Donald Trump has been going through hard times at home due to alleged close links between Russia and his leading colleagues at the White House.

"I believe this operation is more a show of force aiming toward domestic politics," Sait Yilmaz, a security and foreign policy analyst, told Xinhua.

There are "definite" signs that it is a controlled crisis, added Yilmaz, who taught at various Turkish universities.

Following the missile strike, Washington said all the infrastructure in the air base, including hangars and fueling capacity, has been heavily destroyed. It also claimed that the attack had taken out some 20 percent of the Syrian air force.

Later reports revealed that Syrian jets took off from the air base only a day or two after the missile attack. The U.S. said the runway was not targeted as it can be repaired within hours after an attack.

According to an AFP report on Friday, the Syrian military had been warned of a possible strike hours before the attack.

Some aircraft had already been removed from the Shayrat base as part of the precautions taken in several military points, the news agency quoted an anonymous Syrian military source as saying.

The strike rendered nine planes out of service, including several that were "totally destroyed," according to the source.

Reuters, citing an anonymous non-Syrian source fighting with the Syrian military, reported on Saturday that the air base had been mostly evacuated before the attack and only a few out-of-service jets were destroyed.

"Trump's hasty decision to pull the trigger was probably designed to divert attention from his domestic travails," Faruk Logoglu, a former diplomat who held top posts in the Turkish Foreign Ministry, told Xinhua.

To Turkish officials, a U.S. military action against the Syrian government could lead to the creation of safe zones in war-torn Syria, a goal sought by Ankara over the years.

According to Turkish media, Trump talked to several leaders over the phone about forming safe zones in Syria before the missile strike on Shayrat.

Turkey was quick to respond positively. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the U.S. strike as a "positive, concrete step," but said it was not enough.

"The project of safe zones has become more essential than ever," Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said.

It is widely argued, however, the U.S. safe zone plan would lead to the emergence of a Kurdish autonomous region along the Turkish border and its eventual independence.

Turkey sees such an eventuality as an existential threat, and Ankara is particularly concerned that the emergence of such an entity may set a precedent for its own nearly 20 million Kurds and encourage Kurdish separatism at home.

What Turkish officials have failed to see is that the Turkish and U.S. versions of safe zones are different, maintained Dilek, a former Turkish staff officer.

The safe zones in U.S. mind will serve to turn Syria into a federal state, he argued, adding, "The final result will be a disintegration of Syria. That poses an existential and security threat for Turkey."

Turkey has troops on the ground in northern Syria. Backed by rebel Free Syrian Army militants, the Turkish military launched an offensive into Syria last August to push the Islamic State away and prevent the emergence of a Kurdish corridor along its border.

The safe zones would lead to the dismemberment of Syria, observed Ismail Hakki Pekin, a retired general who headed the Turkish General Staff's intelligence unit.

He told the Aydinlik daily on Sunday that big powers would not allow Turkey to turn the area it now controls near its border into a safe zone.

In the view of Dilek, the U.S. may use a Turkish-controlled safe zone, which would cover the area captured by Turkish troops, as a carrot to have Turkey's support.

He warned, however, that such a formation would in the long run turn into a threat against Turkey.

Turkey says it wants safe zones to settle some of the three million Syrian refugees being sheltered on its soil. No-fly zones are needed as well for protection of the safe zones.

In contrast with other analysts, Logoglu and Yilmaz do not think the establishment of safe zones would come up.

Noting safe zones would mean greater U.S. military involvement in Syria, Logoglu maintained that Trump would face strong opposition in Congress.

He added that should Trump declare the Kurdish-controlled area along the Turkish border a safe zone, that would be against Turkey's national interests.

The Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey sees as the Syrian offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, controls three cantons along the Turkish border.

One canton in Afrin is separated from the other two by the area controlled by Turkish troops. The two united YPG cantons are situated in the eastern part of the Euphrates River while the one in Afrin lies some 90 kilometers to the west of the river.

According to Yilmaz, Russia and Syria demand that Turkey evacuate radical Islamist rebels, over whom Turkey is believed to have some sway, from Idlib and withdraw troops from Syria.

"Russia and Syria seek to expand their control to cover all the territory on the western part of the Euphrates at the earliest," he remarked.

Ahmet Takan, a columnist with the Yenicag daily, claimed on Sunday that Turkish troops will withdraw within a couple of months from the Syrian town of al-Bab which they captured in February.

Neither Dilek nor Yilmaz expects the crisis in Syria to grow further between Moscow and Washington.

According to Dilek, recent remarks by King Abdullah II of Jordan are a strong sign of ongoing negotiations between the two rivals.

While in the U.S., the king told the Washington Post last Thursday that a deal the U.S. would reach with Russia on Crimea would help to resolve the Syrian crisis.

"Then you horse-trade. For the Russians I think the most important thing is Crimea," Abdullah II was quoted as saying by the paper. "If you come to an understanding on Crimea, I think you will see much more flexibility on Syria."

"The probability of an armed conflict between the U.S. and Russia in Syria is low due to such negotiations," Dilek remarked.

Yilmaz maintained that Turkey's military operation in Syria aims to create an autonomous area for Sunni Arabs and the plan no longer looks possible.

"It is only Erdogan who dreams of a safe zone for (Sunni) Arabs in Idlib. I don't believe the Russians would allow that either in Idlib or in the western part of the Euphrates, or the U.S. would have such a demand," he said.

Some Gulf countries and Turkey want to include the U.S. in the play in Syria to counterbalance Russia, but the U.S. would not have any intention of making the crisis grow further, Yilmaz said.

Remarks by Secretary Tillerson show the U.S. does not expect the crisis to grow either.

"It was a very deliberate, very proportional, and very targeted strike undertaken in response to the chemical weapons attack. And Russia was never part of the targeting," Tillerson was quoted as saying in press reports.

Turkey waded into Syria militarily only after mending ties with Russia and changed its discourse about the Syrian regime and stopped demanding the ouster of President al-Assad, until the latest crisis.

Noting the shift in Turkey's approach, Logoglu said, "Urging and expressing its readiness to join the U.S. in any further action against al-Assad, Ankara has now reverted to its fixation with al-Assad's removal from power, momentarily putting ISIL and YPG priorities on the back burner." Endit