Obama's thoughts on Trump's Taiwan call

Much ado about nothing? A storm in a teacup, or a serious cause for concern?

No matter how it's viewed, the November phone call between the lady in charge in Taiwan and the man about to take charge in the USA attracted world media attention – and for all the right and wrong reasons.

Happening ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20, 2017 inauguration, it helped the world reconfirm the predictable unpredictability of the man branded as "The Donald" in U.S. entertainment circles.

But the unintended early warning signal also allowed Beijing to consider its position.

Trump displayed the usual bombast in off-script remarks, resorting to his common use of blanket statements that confuse more than inform. But the self-declared "smart" businessman is being advised by his outgoing predecessor to be even smarter.

The call from Taipei to Washington took place at not the best of times in cross-Strait ties. The current Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen continues to reject the 1992 Consensus that drives China's Taiwan policy. But what was planned to be a trump card could end up being an expensive trunk call for Taipei.

Xi Jinping had just days earlier told Hung Hsiu-chu, the leader of Taiwan's Kuomintang (KMT) party, that "adherence to the 1992 Consensus" was essential to "maintaining the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations."

There has been a marked reduction in cross-Strait ties and contacts at all levels under the current leadership in Taiwan. Tsai wants Beijing to take the 1992 Consensus completely off the table. But China has wasted no time telling her that's simply not on the agenda.

Trump is playing his cards close to his chest while gambling heavily on his unpredictability. But in his final press conference of 2016 on Dec. 16, President Barack Obama urged his incoming successor to think carefully before taking any action against China.

Acknowledging that Trump continues to mix-up "campaign rhetoric" with the policies of "governance," Obama urged him to be properly advised before even thinking of addressing or adapting U.S.-China policy.

After eight years of dealing with China, Obama warned Trump that "no bilateral foreign policy is as important" as that between the U.S. and China and that "any breakdown will have consequences."

He acknowledged that at the beginning of any new U.S. administration, "all foreign policies can be subject to new eyes." But in relation to U.S.-China policy, Obama noted that, "The status quo has kept the peace."

Taking a gamble or not, the next American president's long business experience ought to have trained him to always carefully hedge his bets, especially when stakes are so high.

Trump is being increasingly called upon to separate his business from the Presidency and to keep his family business out of the White House.

He was reminded on Dec. 15 on CNN by Carl Bernstein (of Watergate fame) that "America's First Family isn't a Royal Family."

The three Joint Communiques the U.S. signed with China in 1972, 1978 and 1982 all say Washington recognizes Taiwan as part of China and the PRC as the sole legal government of China.

Three former U.S. secretaries of defense said as far back as Jan. 2016 at a forum organized by the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) that the top brass in the U.S. Armed Forces have serious concerns about being dragged into military confrontation with China over Taiwan.

Washington, under successive Democratic and Republican administrations, has also long refrained from engaging in or supporting any action by Taiwan that would forcefully trigger an unwilling implementation of America's treaty obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act.

Maybe Trump has been advised of the security implications for his wild utterances and chose to simply ignore advisers he doesn't trust. Or he could be holding on to what he considers his best trump card: his unpredictability.

Whatever the case, Trump's inauguration date is just a few weeks away. But Obama is placing his bets on his hope that his incoming successor will see the real light when he enters the White House in January.

The outgoing two-term occupant said he's sure Trump "will benefit from the sobering effect of entering the Oval Office."

He also seriously advised Trump that "if you are going to suspend the One China policy, then you will have to have considered the consequences."

Wise words from the departing leader.

However, it can hardly be expected that the man who expects to always be expected to do the unexpected will offer any dependable indication of his real China policy before his first day on the job.

Earl Bousquet is a contributor to China.org.cn, editor-at-large of The Diplomatic Courier and president of the Saint Lucia-China Friendship Association.

Opinion articles reflect the views of their authors only, not necessarily those of China.org.cn.