News Analysis: Assassination of Russian ambassador not to damage Russia-Turkey ties

The assassination of the Russian ambassador to Turkey will not undermine Russia-Turkey relations, according to political analysts.

The actual impact of the incident on bilateral relations and the Syrian situation, they believed, will be quite limited, nor will it jeopardize their cooperation.

MOTIVES BEHIND FATAL SHOOTING

The incident occurred when ambassador Andrei Karlov prepared to address an art exhibition ceremony in the Turkish capital of Ankara on Monday. He was shot dead by a member of Ankara's riot police squad who shouted words including the Syrian city of "Aleppo" at the scene.

The top leaders of Russia and Turkey had a conversation via telephone immediately after the incident, expressing their willingness to jointly investigate the assassination and intensify their cooperation in anti-terrorism.

After the incident, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan strongly condemned the assassination of Russian ambassador to Ankara, describing it as a "provocation" aimed at ruining Turkey-Russia ties.

"Turkey-Russia relations were vital for the region and those who aimed to harm ties were not going to achieve their goals," Erdogan said in a televised message.

Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed with his Turkish counterpart, pointing out the killing of Karlov was a provocation aimed at derailing Russia-Turkey ties and the peace process in Syria.

"This murder is clearly a provocation aimed at undermining the improvement and normalization of Russian-Turkish relations, as well as undermining the peace process in Syria promoted by Russia, Turkey, Iran and other countries interested in settling the conflict in Syria," Putin said in a statement.

Putting the incident in perspective, the Russian Foreign Ministry also saw the connection between the killing and Tuesday's meeting of foreign ministers of Russia, Iran and Turkey in Moscow.

"We will take measures at this meeting (in Moscow) that will make it impossible for those who nurtured the people who ordered and organized this crime to realize their plans," Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a statement.

The Russian media had reported that the meeting would mainly focus on the latest development of situation in Syria after the withdrawal of Syrian anti-government forces from Aleppo.

Syrian Social Nationalist Party representative Tarek Ahmed told Russian news agency Sputnik that this attack was an act aimed at damaging relations between Russia and Turkey as well as preventing a stronger alliance between Russia, Turkey and Iran and Syria.

TARGETING TURKEY-RUSSIA COOPERATION

The killer's remarks showed the murder was aimed at harming Ankara-Moscow ties, especially their cooperation on the Syrian issue, said Zan Tao, director of the Turkey studies center at the Pangoal Institution, a Chinese think tank.

Zan said the attack came at a time when Turkey and Russia are enjoying renewed relations. Together with Iran, the two are working to end the Syrian crisis.

The Chinese expert believes a warmer Ankara-Moscow relationship not only upsets Western countries, but also discomposes the extremist groups and opposition forces inside Syria.

Ankara and Moscow both seek to expand cooperation on the Syrian crisis, since they have common interests in combating extremist groups, Zan said.

Moreover, it is the priority for Ankara to prevent the Syrian Kurds from growing stronger during the war to jointly seek independence with the Kurdish people in Turkey and Iraq. On this issue, Ankara needs support from Moscow, which is gaining an increasingly stronger say on the Syrian issue.

Zan said the newly-established military consultation mechanism between Turkey and Russia helps them avoid clashes, allowing Turkey to continue its airstrike in northern Syria.

Remzi Azkan, former Moscow-based Turkish journalist at the Anadolu agency, said that Turkey's cross-border offensives against Kurdish forces in Syria have "tacit consent" from Russia.

HAVING ONLY PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTS

The Monday incident will by no means sour ties between Turkey and Russia, said Zan.

He cited the fact that leaders on both sides have pointed the finger to the common enemy instead of each other. Observers even reckon that cooperation would strengthen.

They believe retaking the northern Syrian city of Aleppo and other military victories made by the Syrian government forces have helped diminish the chance of toppling the Bashar al-Assad government.

On top of this, it is likely the upcoming Donald Trump administration of the United States will shift to a moderate stance towards Assad and increase cooperation with Russia in solving the Syrian issue.

Generally speaking, Turkey and Russia share interests in combating terrorism, said Zhang Hong, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The Erdogan administration has seen relations with Washington worsen since the failed military coup in July, while finding more common grounds with Moscow.

The Monday assassination of the Russian ambassador may serve to prompt more cooperation in fighting terrorism between Ankara and Moscow and between them and Tehran.

In addition, the incident would help justify continued U.S. efforts against terrorism, against the backdrop of possibly warmer U.S.-Russia ties. This would enable the West to maintain a role in resolving the Syrian crisis with a stance not completely against the Assad government,Zhang said. Endi