News Analysis: Will S. Korean president be impeached?

South Korea's parliament has put forward a historic bill to impeach President Park Geun-hye, but it has a long way to go when taking into account the political bickering between rival parties and uncertainty about the constitutional court ruling.

During the plenary session that kicked off late Friday night, 171 opposition and independent lawmakers handed in the impeachment bill. The ruling party, which has 128 legislators, refrained from joining the move, and the parliamentary speaker failed to participate for political neutrality rules.

The impeachment motion states the president's grave and comprehensive violation of the constitution and laws in her office for nearly four years. Park took office in February 2013.

It marks the second impeachment proposal since the constitution-based government was launched in South Korea about seven decades ago. The latest was in 2004 for late President Roh Moo-hyun.

Proposing the impeachment bill requires a half support from the 300-seat National Assembly. To pass the bill through the unicameral assembly, the two-thirds threshold must be overcome at the aye and no vote, which three main opposition parties have agreed to hold on Dec. 9.

POLITICAL OBSTACLE

There are many obstacles to the forcible removal of President Park from office because at least 28 ruling party lawmakers must be secured to endorse the impeachment. The governing party attempts to stop impeachment efforts, dimming prospects for next Friday's vote.

A faction of the ruling Saenuri Party, which is not loyal to the embattled president, had shown willingness to take part in the impeachment, but its position subtly changed after Park's national address on Tuesday.

Addressing the nation for the third time since a scandal involving herself emerged in October, Park offered to rival parties deciding on her fate. The chief executive called for a road map, which governing and opposition parties agree upon, to cut short her single, five-year term.

Following the four-minute speech, the anti-Park faction said its members will vote for it unless Park accepts the Saenuri-proposed resignation outline referring to her voluntary departure from office by next April and an early presidential election two months later.

It was denounced as a political ploy to buy time as the party's approval rating sank together with support for President Park, which tumbled to single digit for five weeks. The opposition bloc has demanded Park's immediate resignation.

Some members of the ruling party's anti-Park clan even insist on no need for impeachment if the president accepts the resignation timeline, but opposition parties plan to vote on the impeachment motion as scheduled.

CONSERVATIVE-LEANING COURT

Adding to the uncertainties, there is a possibility for the constitutional court to reject the impeachment motion as seen in 2004 when late President Roh Moo-hyun returned to office after the court's rejection.

Roh, the most respected leader among all South Korean presidents, was accused by lawmakers of calling on voters to support his party's candidates in parliamentary elections, violating the election law requiring the president's political neutrality.

After impeaching and suspending Roh, enraged South Koreans took to the streets in large numbers and gave a landslide victory to his party in the elections. The constitutional court ruled that his breach of the election law was not grave enough to justify his impeachment.

Now, situations are totally different. Hundreds of thousands of South Koreans held candlelight rallies for five straight Saturdays, shouting for President Park's immediate resignation. After her third speech, three out of four South Koreans began to demand her impeachment, according to a local survey.

Prosecutors branded Park as a criminal accomplice to Choi Soon-sil, Park's decades-long friend who was charged with multiple counts including abuse of power and extortion. A recently-appointed independent counsel reportedly plans to look into bribery concerning Park.

Uncertainty remains about the conservative-leaning constitutional court. Six of the court's nine judges are seen as being close to the ruling party or President Park, according to local media speculations. Two of the judges, including the chief justice, are scheduled to end their tenure in January and March each next year.

By law, the impeachment bill is required to be upheld by two-thirds of the nine-strong court. If the court's review takes long, six of the remaining seven judges must uphold the impeachment. The court has as long as 180 days to rule on it. Endit