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Change in France coming, one way or another

china.org.cn / chinagate.cn by Sumantra Maitra, December 2, 2016 Adjust font size:

Francoise Fillon is on course to win over Alain Juppe in the conservative primary in France, after former President Sarkozy bowed out. Fillon, who is a social conservative and economically pro-market radical, will run against a more moderate Juppe.

This is perhaps the most important European election, for several reasons. Firstly, post-Brexit, the foundations of the liberal order have been shaken to the core. The winner of this election will be standing against the populist Marine Le Pen. Le Pen has promised to take France out of the EU and to stop migrants coming to Europe in any way possible even, at the cost of gunboats and shooting. Current President Hollande has a low approval rating, and the winner of the conservative vote will likely have to appeal to the socialists to form a grand coalition to fend off Le Pen's challenge. Juppe, while he can certainly appeal to a broader base, is incapable of winning and lacks charisma.

Change is therefore coming to France, one way or the other. In a certain way this is the first test of how much populist ideology has permeated European discourse. Brexit and Trump's victory proved that it has spread across Anglophone countries, but the continental countries have different electoral systems.

Fillon understands that and has correctly pointed out that it is related to economic anxieties. It is unlikely, however, that he has the correct ideas regarding what to do. He wants to create jobs for entrepreneurs, which is all very good in theory; however, a country doesn't suddenly develop competitive advantage, not to mention France's notorious work culture. He also wants to slash over 500,000 public sector jobs. In a way that's understandable, as French bureaucracy needs its flab cut. But given the circumstances, all I can perceive is that it would increase animosity of those who lose their jobs and push them strongly into the populist camp. If there's one thing that's common knowledge this year, it is that right wing populists are masters in exploiting economic grievances, and slashing thousands of jobs is a sure shot way to swell their ranks.

However, Fillon is not all trouble. He has seriously good foreign policy instincts. He correctly understands that there is an urgent need for a détente with Russia and that in the long run a rivalry with Russia doesn't benefit either the EU or France. He has repeatedly stressed the idea of having joint operations with Russia to tackle Islamic terrorism and work alongside Russia in Syria to end the civil war there.

Fillon is also significantly sympathetic to Britain post-Brexit. Perhaps as an influence of his British wife, he understands that Britain has been given the harsh side of the stick by Europe and therefore needs all the support from the French government it can get.

Therefore, in a certain way, Fillon is the better choice than Le Pen. Frankly, it looks unlikely that the EU will be able to absorb the economic shock of another populist winning, and it could be possibly fatal for the institution as well as for the global economy. Fillon, while a conservative, is not an absolute crank, and is sympathetic and widely known for his pragmatic compromises and actual governing experience. The current political instability and paralysis needs to end, and Fillon might indeed provide a much needed course of correction.

Sumantra Maitra is a columnist with China.org.cn. For more information please visit:

http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/SumantraMaitra.htm

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