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Roundup: British statistics reveal no sign of major post-Brexit collapse in confidence

Xinhua, September 21, 2016 Adjust font size:

There has been no sign of a major post-Brexit collapse in confidence in the British economy, but the picture emerging after the June 23 referendum will continue over the coming months and years, the country's Office for National Statistics (ONS) said Wednesday.

Based on results spanning several full months following the decision by Britain to leave the European Union, the ONS has given its first major assessment of the economy.

ONS chief economist Joe Grice said: "As the available information grows, the referendum result appears, so far, not to have had a major effect on the UK economy. So it hasn't fallen at the first fence but longer-term effects remain to be seen."

In the run up to the referendum, fears were expressed about a plunging economy, tax rises, an emergency budget and a rise in unemployment.

ONS said in its report: "Information so far generally covers short-term indicators with other important information not yet available. Nevertheless, there has been no sign of a major collapse in confidence and, within the data that is available, some indicators of strength."

The EU referendum vote had an immediate impact on the stock market and currency as expectations about Britain's trade position and wider economic relations with the EU and the rest of the world changed significantly.

"Some outside surveys carried out in the days and weeks immediately after the result suggested a sharp deterioration in consumer and business confidence," the report added.

ONS said the emerging picture shows the fall in the value of sterling has so far had little effect on prices. There is also little sign yet of an effect on factory gate or consumer prices while house prices continued to grow strongly in July.

Manufacturing output saw a small fall of 0.9 percent in July with no sign that post-referendum fears were disproportionately affecting any particular sub-sectors.

"So far there are no signs of a sharp collapse in consumer confidence as some early fears had suggested," said ONS, adding: "The continued high employment rate of 74.5 percent for the 3 months to July would also fit with a picture of broad strength in the UK economy in the run up to and in the period immediately following the EU referendum."

It is yet to be seen whether the services sector, which makes up more than three-quarters of the economy and has driven growth since 2009, has been impacted by post-referendum uncertainties, while information is awaited on any impact Brexit has had on business investment.

"The post-referendum picture is still emerging and will continue to do so over coming months, quarters and years. Information so far generally covers short-term indicators with other important information not yet available. Nevertheless, there has been no sign of a major collapse in confidence and, within the data that is available, some indicators of strength," said the ONS report.

Several reports due in the coming weeks, including a preliminary estimate of Britain's GDP covering the third quarter of the year covering July to September, as well as an ONS economic review will provide more details of the emerging picture. Endit