News Analysis: Grenade blast in Madagascar, terrorist attack or political destabilization

Madagascar celebrated the 56th anniversary of its independence from France on Sunday, when a grenade explosion was heard around 7:00 pm (GMT + 3) from the concert's podium, killing two people and injuring 84 others in the municipal stadium of Mahamasina.

The Secretary of State of the Gendarmerie General Paza Didier talked about terrorism act that targeted several people at once in a projectile explosion when he rushed to the crime scene. Some hours before the blast, two grenades also were seized by the armed forces during their checking at Madagascar's capital Antananarivo.

For his part, Madagascar's defense minister, Xavier Beni Rasolofonirina also denounced terrorism and irresponsible act. He condemned the explosion, "a vile act to shed patriots' blood for whatever reasons the authors has the same blood as the victims in their veins".

Informed immediately of the bloody explosion in Mahamasina stadium, the Prime Minister Olivier Mahafaly Solonandrasana said that face to the massacre coating of terrorism, authorities will not tolerate and promised to take drastic measures and will sanction authors of these acts.

"It was no more destabilization but a terrorist act to kill people. It is inadmissible because it exceeds the limits, and I order the army, the gendarmerie and the police to take responsibility," Madagascar's President Hery Rajaonarimampianina lamented during his visit to the victims in hospital.

The officials talked about terrorism act but actually Madagascar has always excluded the real experiences of terrorist attack as known in other countries asked by Daesh, Boko Haram, or Islamic State.

Malagasy people have rather known explosions of handmade bomb or molotov cocktail, and rarely explosion in the offensive grenade that is only owned by militaries. The head of security and investigations of the gendarmerie, General Anthony Rakotoarison himself told Xinhua on Monday in an interview that "the projectile fragments found in the stadium were those of a modified projectile, clogged with plumb. So it was a handcraft grenade."

Following the grenade explosions in a crowd fully cheering their national day celebration, rumors continue to spread about the possible cancellation of the 16th Summit of the Francophonie scheduled to be held in Madagascar from Nov.26-27 this year.

Moreover, fear of terrorism pushed local observers to think that such an international meeting would be an ideal theater for terrorists to show their acts especially insecurity is getting worse in Madagascar because of this Sunday's blast.

Fortunately, Madagascar's Foreign Affairs minister Beatrice Atallah confirmed on Monday that all the international meetings, including the meeting of French speaking parliament in July, the summit of Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) in October and the French speaking countries summit (La Francophonie) in November will be on schedule though this terrorism act on the national day.

Nevertheless all these ideas of "terrorism", the leaders of current regime also qualified this blast as "a political destabilization".

"This is a heinous act! Blood flowed. Be aware, an offensive grenade is launched to innocent Malagasy people. The Independence Day is not only for the president with government members but for of all Malagasy people. There is something called political truce worldwide. But in Madagascar, the political truce is not even respected," Prime Minister Olivier Mahafaly Solonandrasana said.

The president Hery Rajaonarimampianina for his part expressed that a divergence of views can exist but acts of destabilization are inadmissible. "You cannot kill like this the population though you do not like the leader. I never tolerate destabilization," the president added.

Former presidents, including Didier Ratsiraka who presided for 21 years from 1975 to 1991 and from 1996 to 2001, Albert Zafy who led the country from 1993 to 1996 and Andry Rajoelina who led the transition from 2009 to January 2014, did not attend the military parade which is always considered as the apotheosis of the national day celebration. Marc Ravalomanana, who presided from 2001 to March 2009, attended the military parade.

For the two elected former presidents, their old age allowed them to be absent because Ratsiraka will be 80 in November while Zafy is already 89, but the absence of Rajoelina, who is still 42 years, is significant. Actually Rajoelina became opposition to his candidate to the 2013 presidential election.

The regime's leaders suspected the opposition as behind this blast because the Senator Lylison De Réné, supporting Andry Rajoelina, still teased the government by saying to come to Mahamasina stadium for the national day celebration though an arrest warrant against him was issued since June 9. The arrest warrant was issued against Lylison for flagrant offense following his public incitement to make Antananarivo a "dead city" in May 2016.

After this announcement of Lylison to come in Mahamasina, the police took a very strong security disposal during the military parade knowing that Lylison is a well known colonel of the gendarmerie who headed the Special Intervention Force during the transition of 2009-2014.

Hery Rajaonarimampianina, minister of Finance and Budget of the transition from 2009-2014 was proposed by the president of the transition Andry Rajoelina as his candidate in the 2013 presidential election when the later was banned by the international community not to be candidate. But Rajoelina became opposition of Rajaonarimampianina when the later decided to separate from his former political friends of the transition and chose to ally with Marc Ravalomanana during his swearing ceremony on Jan. 25, 2016. Ravalomanana was ousted by Rajoelina in March 2009 and still remain his political enemy until now.

After this declaration of Rajaonarimampianina, an explosion took place the evening of his swearing ceremony, killing one people and injuring several others.

General Anthony Rakotoarison told Xinhua on Monday that the investigation on this blast of Jan. 25, 2016 is still underway and not yet completed because the author was not identified.

Explosions of handmade bomb repeated in Madagascar between 2009 and late 2010, when Rajoelina took power and was challenged by Ravalomanana's supporters. Investigators have always said after their investigation that the bombs that have succeeded since 2009 in Madagascar had political below.

The bombs were calm after the signing of the roadmap in September 2011 between the crisis protagonists. Indeed the roadmap ordered Malagasy politicians to install a consensus government, where almost all political actors will have seats in the transition.

According to the expert in political analysis Raniriharinosy Harimanana, the attack of June 26 is a social fact to attract leaders' attention.

"These acts of terrorism, insecurity, came from the social discrimination checked sociologically," Professor Raniriharinosy interpreted while advancing it would be still time for dialogue to cure this destabilization desire.

"The political lesson is dialogue and the resumption of national reconciliation which is our priority and that is stipulated in the preamble of the Constitution of the 4th Republic on Dec. 11, 2010," Raniriharinosy added. Endit