Africa Watch: Machar's absence creates power vacuum, dents peace hopes in South Sudan

The catch phrase doing rounds in the streets of the South Sudan capital Juba is "will he come or not," after the rebel leader Riek Machar failed to return as he had earlier indicated.

Analysts say Machar's delayed arrival has created a power vacuum as the rival political factions are behind schedule in the formation of the transitional government of national unity under the signed August 2015 peace agreement.

Machar's absence was explained by his spokesperson William Ezekiel, who said the government failed to clear the flight from Gambela, Ethiopia of the General Chief of Staff of the Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA)-IO Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual who was expected to arrive to Juba before the rebel leader.

"Once again we are deeply sorry to announce cancellation of Machar's coming today (Tuesday) to Juba. It is issues related to logistics, there is another demand that came in that the chief of general staff plane must be cleared by government to fly into South Sudan space," Ezekiel told reporters at the Juba airport.

The SPLM-IO had promised Tuesday for their elusive leader to return after the Monday fiasco but this has left a lot to be desired on the government as its spokesperson Michael Makuei hinted the next decision will be on President Salva Kiir and his cabinet whose term has expired.

"This stalemate the way I understand it definitely delays the formation of the transitional government of national unity but the question is how long shall we wait for Machar. We have been operating in a vacuum since the pre-transition period has ended and the transitional period has not started," Makuei said.

Sources told Xinhua that Machar's arrival in Juba has been delayed because of a disagreement over the number of opposition troops travelling with Machar and his chief of staff, Dual, who is under U.S. and UN sanctions.

The opposition has demanded that Dual return to Juba along with the return of Machar.

Machar's return and subsequent swearing-in as vice president are seen as key steps towards implementation of the August 2015 peace deal.

The peace agreement which has failed to end the civil war, gives government 16 ministerial positions, rebels 10, former detainees and other political parties' two positions respectively.

And already the leader of the Opposition Alliance, a loose coalition of political parties, Lam Akol, has criticized President Kiir's decree issued on Sunday, appointing 10 members of the opposition allied to his ruling SPLM without consulting Akol who termed it as a violation of the peace deal.

Akol added that they did all the necessary preparations for Machar's arrival only to be disappointed by his not showing up.

Machar, a veteran guerrilla of the civil war has overtime built a Machiavellian character with his checkered history in the SPLM as being a divisive, power hungry and mistrusted figure among some of his contemporaries.

His infamous split from the SPLA in 1991 leading to internal fight and Bor massacre and his endorsement of the much criticized 1997 Khartoum agreement with then enemy Sudan didn't shed good light on his political star.

"This idea of lack of trust and confidence, yes it's there but it's built. How do you build it when you are not together but once you start to distance yourself you are actually widening the gap," Makuei said while commenting on the failure by Machar to return.

Makuei added that with already his 1,370 troops in Juba, Machar should not call for flimsy excuses for his not turning up in Juba and that any new conditions on his much-awaited return violate the letter and spirit of the peace deal.

"The government was informed that he wanted to come with an arsenal of arms, anti tanks and heavy machine guns," Makuei added.

"These 1,370 troops have already arrived with their individual rifles and live ammunition as approved by the Peace Agreement and the Joint Military and Ceasefire Commission," he added.

He also said in conformity with the provisions of the agreement the SPLA-IO General Chief of Staff will only come with 40 soldiers to Juba, bringing the number of SPLA-IO troops to 1,410 forces.

"The government will not accept any surplus arms or forces to Juba and if the SPLA-IO plans such they should leave these forces and ammunition in Pagak," he explained.

However, political science don at Juba University Jacob Chol believes Machar's coming is a big step in the implementation of 25 percent of the peace deal.

"There is no much optimism on this process because the two principals are yet to implement the agreement to its letter and spirit," he told Xinhua on Wednesday.

Chol added the SPLM leaders have been having internal differences dating back to the more than two-decade civil war of independence from Sudan that was characterized by intrigue and defections.

"It is not going to be smooth. The two rival leaders have come under pressure from their hard liners which has led to delay in implementation of the agreement on both sides," he said.

He added the transitional parliament will have more than the current 400 MPs coupled with the newly created 28 states and yet there is not enough revenue to finance all these.

Ebony Center for Strategic Studies Economist Dr. James Alic Garang said focus must be on cushioning the economy that is nearing brinkmanship.

"There will be short term stabilization in the economy after Machar returns but it will be short lived. But when there are wrong people in charge there will not be market stability," Alic observed.

He said Machar's return to Juba may lead to either he remains in the SPLM party fighting for internal democracy, which was a contentious issue before he left for rebellion or he decides to form his political party outside the SPLM.

The economy has seen the South Sudanese pound appreciate against the U.S. dollar from 40 to 36 from March to April following news of Machar's return to Juba.

Civil servants have gone for almost three months without pay amid soaring prices of basic commodities like food and fuel.

"At the moment it's very uncertain whether Machar will form his party or he will agitate for more democratic space within the ruling SPLM. What is clear if he forms his own political party, it will be looked at as a weakness and a Nuer dominated ethnic party because SPLM is a dominant and historical party among South Sudanese," he explained.

Alic also said that the contest between Kiir and Machar as the country heads towards 2018 elections will hinge around reforms in election laws and control of parliament majority which the latter enjoys over his deputy.

He added the two leaders have learned a lesson that power contest outside democratic structures is untenable.

"They have learned a lesson that they can't use their agitators to get power. The army will have to think twice this time before interfering in the SPLM internal politics having learned from the 2013 conflict," he said further. Endit