News Analysis: Impeachment process a setback for Rousseff, but defenders see fair chance

A Brazilian congressional committee voted on Monday to recommend impeachment against President Dilma Rousseff, but pro-government lawmakers believe a two-thirds majority can hardly be secured in the full lower house for the process to move ahead.

The special commission voted 38-27 to send the impeachment question to the full Chamber of Deputies, or the lower house of Congress, which is expected to hold a vote on Sunday.

If two-thirds of the chamber vote in favor, the motion then goes to the Senate, which would rule whether Rousseff should be removed.

Before making the recommendation on Monday, the special committee met for 10 sessions and heard the president's defense.

The voting results showed an implosion of the coalition which elected Rousseff in 2014 -- out of the nine parties of the 2014 coalition, only four voted entirely against the impeachment. Other five parties had at least one representative vote for the impeachment.

According to local media, the government already knew it would not be able to halt the impeachment process in the committee, and was already focusing on gathering enough votes at Congress.

The task is not an easy one, given the state of the coalition, the situation of the Brazilian economy, and a widespread media campaign against the president, which may lead congressmen to place their bets in another administration.

The government argues that the impeachment process itself is nothing but a soft coup. The process is based on a premise that the president committed a crime of responsibility when she resorted to fiscal maneuvers to close the 2014 budget and be able to pay for social benefits.

However, fiscal maneuvers are common practices in Brazil, which do not constitute a crime of fiscal responsibility under the Brazilian law, the government argues. Therefore, any impeachment process based on that premise is illegal, it says.

Despite difficulties, some government members remain optimistic. The committee voting was relatively balanced, and the group that favored the impeachment won by a majority of 58 percent. In order to impeach Rousseff, a much wider gap is needed.

"This proportion will not result in an impeachment," said congressman Arlindo Chinaglia, from the Workers' Party. "This voting does not mean the impeachment is guaranteed, the opposition is exaggerating in the celebration," he said.

Social forces have been mobilized by both sides. Major protests for and against Rousseff were held in the past few months, including a large event which gathered thousands of people supporting Rousseff and her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, in defense of "legality and democracy." Endi