News Analysis: Israel and Turkey -- on the path towards reconciliation

Mutual interests, complicated geopolitics and creative diplomacy will most likely result in the resumption of normalized diplomatic ties between Israel and Turkey, observers here say.

Ties between the two countries had gradually deteriorated and reached an all-time low in May 2010, when a flotilla led by Turkish activists tried to break Israel's embargo on the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces killed nine Turkish activists who were on the leading vessel. Israel said the actions were taken in self-defense.

Turkey, outraged by the killing, downgraded its diplomatic relations with Israel, bringing the bilateral relationship to a new low, from that of erstwhile strong partners with many mutual interests.

"NEW REALITY"

But now, a new reality in the Middle East has led to a re-emergence of mutual interests which may very well bring the two to a detente.

The crisis between Ankara and Moscow after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet escalated to such an extent that Erdogan was reminded of the necessity of his former ally.

Israel, always in a minority in the Middle East, needs any ally it can get in the region.

Gallia Lindenstrauss, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, believes the chances for normalization of relations are "very high" in light of the "chaos" in the Middle East.

Turkish Prime Minister Racip Tayyip Erdogan has recently said that his country and Israel "need each other."

"Turkey now knows it needs NATO and the United States. It has always been an American interest that Israel and Turkey reach an agreement," Lindenstrauss said.

For Israel, a rapprochement with Turkey would bring financial benefits.

Its recent discovery of large natural gas reserves in the Mediterranean is seen as a boon to Turkey, which until now has largely relied on Russian gas.

As Ankara seeks to "diversify its sources of gas," according to Lindenstrauss, Israel's proximity suddenly becomes extremely convenient.

But Barcin Yinanc, an editor at Turkey's Hurriyet Daily News, is less optimistic. He put chances for an agreement at "50-50," citing several obstacles.

Tensions between the two countries still run high. Israel is not happy with Erdogan's staunch support of the Hamas organization that rules the Gaza Strip, which has been under Israeli blockade since 2007, when Hamas violently took control of the coastal strip.

Turkey is demanding unfettered access to the Gaza Strip as a condition to normalizing the relations. Chances of Israel agreeing to that are slim and Erdogan is well aware of that.

"CREATIVE DIPLOMACY"

Lindenstrauss, however, believes "creative diplomacy" could overcome this obstacle.

Israel already allows Turkey to engage in the rehabilitation of the poverty stricken territory.

Turkey is involved in building a hospital, mosques and in promoting water purification projects.

Israel will want to be seen as continuing the blockade on Gaza while allowing Turkey enough access to satisfy its demand, Lindenstrauss said.

"Israel understands today that Gaza needs to be rehabilitated," Lindenstrauss added. "Israel should not object in principle to Turkish initiatives in Gaza."

Yinanc, of the Hurriyet Daily News, believes Erdogan is playing a game with this condition -- he is either trying to genuinely break Israel's embargo or trying to teach Israel some sort of lesson by posing a condition that in its entirety is a deal breaker for Israel.

However, the turmoil now buffetting the Middle East has Turkey and Israel at a loss.

Although the two countries "do not share the same perspective," the crises might force Turkish President Erdogan and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu put aside their differences, Yinanc said.

"There is a potential that the crisis creates a whirlpool that will take in Israel and Turkey, that the tensions between the two will become minuscule if the Middle East implodes," she said.

TALKS RESTARTED

Israeli and Turkish negotiators reportedly restarted talks on normalizing ties on Feb. 11 in Geneva, including on ending the blockade on Gaza. The coming weeks will be telling as to which direction bilateral relations go.

As is often the case in international relations, interests lead the way. For Turkey and Israel, their mutual interests will most likely lead the two to find some way to put aside their differences.

The region as a whole and the Palestinians in particular specifically could benefit from a strong alliance between Israel and Turkey.

Ankara's condition of opening up Gaza may not be completely met but even a partial compromise on Israel's part will benefit with one of the poorest and neglected territories in the world. Endit