News Analysis: Dutch referendum on EU-Ukraine deal test vote for Europe

Political debate is heating up in the Netherlands two months ahead of an April 6 advisory referendum calling the Dutch to decide on a key European treaty.

Although not binding, a "no" vote would point towards broader euro-skepticism among the Dutch and put the government's pro-European stance to a test, experts say.

"The referendum on the European Union's association agreement with Ukraine is not oriented against the treaty as such, but rather against what is perceived as a lack of influence of the Dutch voters in Brussels," political scientist Andre Krouwel at Amsterdam's Vrij Universiteit (VU) said in an interview.

"Europe is perceived by the Dutch as incompetent to give solutions to serious problems. The insecurity around the continuing austerity and the slow economic growth has aggravated lately with Europe's inability to tackle the refugee crisis," the professor said.

The referendum commission has already received 173 applications from civil societies and political organizations for funding activities related to the referendum. Most of the petitions come from "no" campaigners.

"It is a polarized debate and it would be easier for the 'no' camp to mobilize people, who strongly feel against the treaty and against Europe," said Krouwel. An opinion poll published last week showed that the 55.5 percent of the Dutch voters plan to say "no," while those intending to vote "yes" lag behind at 44.5 percent despite an increase from 38 percent in December.

A TRADE DEAL

The Dutch coalition government led by the right-wing liberal Prime Minister Mark Rutte strongly supports the agreement. "It is a trade agreement and the Netherlands is a free trade nation," Rutte told reporters during his weekly press conference last Friday.

In an effort to reassure Dutch voters that the treaty with Ukraine is not a first step for a new EU enlargement, he argued that Europe has similar agreements with countries in Central America, the Middle East and other regions, which cannot become members of the EU. "I trust the Dutch voter that he will be wise and take the right decision in April," he said.

The vast majority of the EU treaty with Ukraine, which went into force provisionally on January 1 as it awaits ratification of all 28 EU member states, involves removing trade barriers between the former Soviet republic and Europe. Ukraine is not formally an applicant to join the EU, although the bloc does recognize Ukraine could ask to become a member in the future.

Apart from the government coalition partners (the liberal VVD and the labor PvdA), most of the country's leading parties plan to campaign in favor of the association agreement, which was ratified by a large parliamentary majority in April last year. Three parties are against, the right-wing anti-EU Freedom Party (PVV), the left-wing Socialist Party (SP) and the Party for the Animals (PvdD).

"The Dutch are strongly in favor of trade and the government is turning the debate towards this dimension to gain support for the agreement," the VU professor said. "But it is a referendum the major political parties would have preferred to avoid. It is the civil societies and not the political parties which are going to be at the frontline of this debate."

ANTI-EUROPE INITIATIVES

The referendum initiators had brought up the issue of a possible EU expansion to include Ukraine at the start of their campaign. The question to be asked on April 6 is "are you in favor or against the law that approves the association agreement between the European Union and Ukraine."

But initiators had made it clear that the reasons for seeking the referendum had less to do with the Dutch views on the EU's ties with Ukraine. It had to do with a vote on the EU itself.

The referendum, the first ever under a new 2014 Dutch law, was triggered last year by the anti-European satirical website GeenStijl. Together with two other anti-European organizations, the Forum for Democracy (Forum voor Democratie) and Citizen Committee EU (Burgercomite EU), the website collected some 420,000 signatures, more than 300,000 needed to call for a referendum on any piece of Dutch legislation.

"The people in the Netherlands are questioning who belongs to Europe and who is going to be part of Europe in the future," explained Krouwel. Voters are particularly concerned about an EU expansion to the east. In the case of the Ukraine tensions are even higher as the Netherlands lost 193 citizens in the crash of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in east Ukraine in July 2014.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister and head of the Eurogroup, has acknowledged that "the referendum is basically not about the association agreement." "It's about where the decisions are made and many Dutch citizens feel that they have no say in decisions taken in Brussels," he said.

Hot issues such as terrorism, refugee crisis and Brexit also add weight to public concerns. Concerns over immigration have boosted the anti-EU Freedom Party (PVV) of right-wing populist Geert Wilders, who is currently leading in polls and would win more seats than the two governing parties together if elections were held now. Political analysts believe an eventual success of the anti-European citizens' initiative in the April referendum would help Wilders' party.

CRISIS AHEAD?

The Netherlands had been a stronghold of European integration and the home to the Maastricht treaty that produced the euro single currency. But the Dutch said a devastating "no" in the 2005 referendum on the EU Constitution when 61.5 percent of the voters rejected the treaty, putting the project for greater European integration at risk. The rejection led to amendments and the EU Constitution was later adopted.

Last month, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned that a Dutch rejection of the bloc's association agreement with Ukraine in the April referendum could lead to a "continental crisis."

Politicians actively involved in the "no" camp in 2005, such as Harry van Bommel who had led the "no" campaign for the Socialist party, are also actively fighting against the EU-Ukraine treaty in the upcoming referendum.

It is difficult to forecast how many people will actually vote in April. The latest poll showed that 34 percent plans to turn out in the referendum, which must have at least 30 percent of the electorate votes to be valid.

"Today the Dutch feel even less connected with Europe," said Krouwel. "Our data show that over the past 20 years, the Dutch have increasingly become more critical towards Europe. They feel like they are driving faster and faster in a dark tunnel, but don't know what lies at the end, where Europe is taking them." Enditem