Off the wire
• U.S. stocks decline on falling oil prices  • IGAD expresses concern over S. Sudan decision to create 28 states  • Feature: Project to help blind drive vehicles wins 29 mln USD British gov't funding  • Ukraine's flu death toll climbs to 171 since last week  • British manufacturing expands at start of 2016  • Ukraine refutes reports on plans to join military operation against Islamic State  • Jordan says int'l community should shoulder responsibilities toward Syrian refugees  • Jordan says no alternative to negotiations to achieve peace between Palestinians, Israelis  • Spain's new car sales rise in January  • U.S. manufacturing activity contracts in January  
You are here: 　 Home

News Analysis: Trump's chance of winning Republican nomination or presidential race increases if with Iowa victory

Xinhua, February 2, 2016 Adjust font size:

Many people have since last summer dismissed the idea that Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination, not to mention the 2016 U.S. presidential race, but some are rethinking that assumption as the billionaire is poised to win Iowa's Republican caucuses Monday.

Trump leads his major Republican rival and Texas Senator Ted Cruz by 28 percent to 23 percent in Iowa, according to a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll released Saturday.

A win in Iowa, which has a 50 percent success rate at predicting the candidate's becoming a party presidential nominee, will greatly boost Trump's chance of winning the Republican Party's (GOP's) nomination.

Indeed, some U.S. experts now say the bombastic businessman could actually win not only the GOP nomination, but also the White House -- if everything falls perfectly into place.

Trump burst onto the political scene in last summer, and has outlasted many analysts' predictions that he would be just a flash in the pan. The brash and outspoken mogul continues to lead the other Republican candidates, riding on a wave of anti-Washington sentiment and a general sense that the country is headed in the wrong direction.

Experts said that a few things would have to happen for Trump to win the White House in 2016. First, he would have to run an outstanding campaign, galvanize a large turnout among white voters and win the majority of that group.

Second, he would have to get a significant portion of the non-white vote, although he wouldn't need the majority.

Third, likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will have to run a weak campaign, and one that does not inspire her supporters to go out and vote for her on election day.

Trump would need 64 percent of the white vote, according to Real Clear Politics, as reported in redstate.com. Trump would also need around 30 percent of the non-white vote, according to respected Republican pollster Whit Ayres, as reported in the National Journal.

Republican strategist Ford O'Connell spelled out how Trump could win.

If Trump runs a strong campaign and gets a strong turnout of rank-and-file GOP voters, and at the same time if Clinton runs a weak campaign, then Trump could well win the White House in 2016, he said.

"Anything is possible. He is always exceeding expectations. And there is a real chance that he could win a general election if the right things fall into place," O'Connell told Xinhua.

Trump has been blasted for his often over-the-top statements in public, and for touting policies such as wanting to build a massive wall on the United States' southern border -- to keep out illegal immigrants -- and demanding that Mexico pay for it. He has also raised hackles for saying that Muslims should not be allowed to enter the United States, following the terror attacks on Paris that killed 130 people.

But despite the controversy, he is wildly popular among many who are fed up with the way the country has been run in recent years.

Trump' s popularity stems much from Americans' frustration with the direction of their country, a still weak economy, and what critics deride as a weak U.S. foreign policy. Experts said Trump' s message is appealing to supporters who believe the GOP establishment is incapable of leading the country in the right direction.

As the U.S. election season begins, only four in 10 Americans rate the situation in the U.S. as positive, which is well below the historical average, a recent Gallup poll found.

Less than half of Americans are upbeat about their personal finances. Forty-four percent of U.S. adults said they are financially "better off" than they were a year ago, while 35 percent said things have gotten worse, according to another recent Gallup poll.

Americans' satisfaction with security from terrorism has dropped significantly in the wake of the recent terror attacks in France and southern California, where 14 people were killed last December by a couple radicalized by the terror group Islamic State. Endit