News Analysis: Iraq's victory in Ramadi blow to IS, tough battles ahead

Iraq's victory over Islamic State (IS) militants in Anbar's provincial capital city Ramadi was decisive, but analysts believe that an uphill battle is still needed to defeat the IS in the heavy populated city of Mosul in northern Iraq.

"Regaining Ramadi was important as it is indicative of two major issues. First of all, it illustrated the coordinated efforts of the Iraqi security forces and the U.S.-led coalition which were previously sporadic in earlier battles," Ibrahim al-Ameri, a political analyst, told Xinhua.

Similar coordination was previously successful with the Kurdish Peshmerga forces, and can be undertaken once more in future battles to free key towns in the IS stronghold of Fallujah and Mosul.

"The Ramadi victory was achieved by Iraq's army and police forces without the participation of Shiite militias. This confirmed their precariousness in the advance toward Tikrit, Baiji and other areas in the Salahudin province earlier in the year," added al-Ameri.

Earlier in the year, American forces, who lead an anti-IS international coalition supporting Iraqi forces with airstrikes, training and ammunition, apparently shifted their strategy of fighting the IS in Iraq. They recruited more Sunni tribal fighters who own lands in Sunni provinces and refused to depend on Shiite paramilitary units, known as Hashd Shaabi.

The Americans believed that the large presence of Sunni paramilitaries within Hashd Shaabi units reduced Sunni residents' fears of possible torching and looting of their homes by Shiite militias who may be driven by sectarian or revenge motives.

They did not want a repeat incident similar to what took place in Tikrit, Dour and other towns in the Salahudin province, which security forces and allied Shiite militias freed a substantial part of from IS extremists.

Sunni legislator, Dafir al-Aani, said in a press release that Ramadi's liberation occurred without a sectarian element to it, as witnessed during the liberation of Tikrit and Baiji in the Salahudin province, as well as Jurf al-Sakhar in the south of Baghdad.

"The lack of participation of Shiite Hashd Shaabi militias, led to a smooth, sectarian-free liberation of Ramadi," Aani said.

Iraqi forces entered Ramadi without Iranian-backed Shiite militias, increasing their credibility among the Sunni community, and certainly preventing the IS from recruiting Sunni supporters in the future, According to al-Ameri.

Najib al-Jubouri, another political analyst, believes the Ramadi victory was significant for Iraq's security forces and government, yet it is not a definitive defeat of the IS in Iraq.

The Ramadi victory "positively impacted the morale of the security forces, in addition to additional experience acquired by fighting in coordination with the coalition forces - all necessary ingredients for the coming battle to free Mosul."

"It is more of a symbolic victory rather than a strategic one, because the IS are still capable of launching attacks throughout Iraq despite their recent defeat in Ramadi," al-Jubouri said.

"IS militants withdrew their weapons and vehicles and most of their militants before the battle started," according to al-Jubouri.

However, he said "The IS's Ramadi defeat may have weakened it, but it is too early to conclude that it would lead to an effortless termination of IS in the future."

Al-Jubouri's comment came after Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi hailed the Ramadi victory Monday saying "2015 may be the liberation year, and God willing 2016 will be the year of the absolute victory, the year of Daesh's end and IS presence in Iraq."

The latest Iraqi army strategy of using police and Sunni tribal fighters on land with U.S. airstrikes providing cover limiting IS's mobility and destroying their urban area bastions proved effective. Most likely the strategy will be used again in Fallujah, weakened by Ramadi's fall. However, liberating Mosul and ending the IS's presence in Iraq remains a distant goal.

Early in October, Iraqi security forces, backed by the U.S.-led coalition and Iraqi aircraft, launched a major offensive to free the city Ramadi from IS militants. They slowly advanced toward the city until they surrounded it, then launched battles on its outskirts.

The province of Anbar has long been the core for powerful Sunni insurgency. Its complex geography, expansive deserts and shared borders with three neighboring countries as well as five Iraqi provinces, renders the task of securing it highly difficult.

However, the authentic challenge facing Baghdad is the heavily populated city of Mosul, compared with the less densely populated cities of Ramadi and Fallujah. Endit