Spotlight: New cycle of tensions hardly changes dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian conflict

It is the chronic symptom of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that a wave of violence triggers a smell of change, but in the end the violence subsides, and the sides go back to square one. Will this time around be different?

The recent wave of violence is already over three months long and has raised questions about the future of the Palestinian Authority (PA). Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has threatened to cancel the Oslo accords signed between the two in 1993 and subsequently dissolve the PA.

However, considering current realities, observers believe the ongoing confrontation and Abbas' threat related to the Oslo accords will hardly change the dynamics of the decades-old conflict between Israel and the Palestinians -- this round of violence may last for some time but will die down gradually in the end,and the status quo would remain in the foreseeable future.

The Oslo accords gave the Palestinians autonomous control over parts of the West Bank which Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast War. It was to be a step towards Palestinian self-determination but years of stalemate, violent cycles and political developments have halted any further progress.

A dissolution of the PA would result in millions of Palestinians on the doorstep of the Jewish state. Not a desired outcome for either side for many reasons.

The current violence began in September and was focused on Jerusalem's holy sites, but it quickly spread to other areas.

Nineteen Israelis have been killed by Palestinian attackers. More than 100 Palestinians have been killed, with Israel saying dozens of them were assailants. The remainder were killed in clashes with Israeli forces in different areas. The daily lives on both sides have been severely disrupted.

In response to the upsurge in violence, Israel has imposed curfews and closures on Palestinian areas and increased restriction of movement for many Palestinians. In certain cases, it has canceled work permits which Palestinians need in order to enter Israel and make a living.

Some members of Israel's current right wing government say they are eager for the cessation of the agreement and while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken in favor of a two-state solution, he has failed to take any action that would promote the cause.

Various elements of the Israeli right wing have historically opposed the Oslo accords because they believe the Jewish state has a historical, even biblical right to the lands that the Palestinians populate and now control.

There is no support for this among the international community, so that even if Netanyahu was allowed to fulfill his own desire, it would be impossible and lead to further isolation of Israel in the international arena.

Revoking the Oslo accords will essentially mean turning the wheel back on potential Palestinian statehood and will result in Israeli forces going back into Palestinian cities.

Yehia Kassem, chief correspondent for Al Hurra television in Israel, believes the threat is futile as it has been heard from Abbas' mouth many times and the leader has yet to deliver on his promise.

But while Abbas may not follow up on this step, Kassem believes the stability of the Palestinian Authority is indeed eroding. The popular dismay among Palestinians of their leadership coupled with the Israeli measures attempted at curbing the violence are a threatening combination that will eat away at the PA, according to Kassem.

Dr. Ronni Shaked of the Middle Eastern Studies Department at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem also believes the threat is an empty one as there is too much at stake.

"Abbas' threat is the only tool he has to use... he cannot fight a war (against Israel)... It is definitely a futile threat," says Shaked. "The Palestinians did not fight so many years for what they have achieved in order for them to relinquish it."

Shaked is referring to the PA's status as de-facto country, although de-jura it has not yet achieved the status.

Dr. Amneh Badran, a political scientist from the Al Quds University in Jerusalem, says the PA is a critical part of the conflict and its management, pointing to the chronic nature of the struggle.

He warns of a possible collapse of the PA amid the current tensions, saying that the gradual erosion of the credibility of the PA will need a "magic moment" that will cause its collapse -- this can happen at any given time.

Israel, which ultimately calls the shots concerning the fate of the Palestinians, has too many vested interests in keeping the Palestinian Authority alive that it will not allow or encourage its dissolution.

In recent days the Israeli cabinet led by Netanyahu held a meeting to discuss the option.

Israeli media reported that while several cabinet ministers said the collapse of the PA would have a positive effect on Israel, military and intelligence chiefs present at the meeting issued a severe warning against the scenario.

According to Badran, the Palestinian Authority serves as a mere service agent, not a real independent entity and Israel would be quick to step in to fill in the void should a collapse occur.

Indeed, the failure of the PA to survive will perpetualize Palestinian dependency on Israel's economy and push them to be dependent on other Israeli services for daily life, services such as health, policing and education. These are currently supplied to them by the PA.

The Oslo accords are not only an agreement that brought to the establishment of the Palestinian Authority in territories of the West Bank, they created a reality on the ground that observers say can hardly be reversed, regardless of Abbas' brinkmanship tactic.

Dr. Shaked points out that the current areas of violent conflict are areas which were not dealt with in the Oslo accords and left for later negotiation -- Jerusalem and Hebron as leading examples.

The Israelis and most certainly the Palestinians, do not want to see Israeli boots on the ground in areas they have no controlled in years.

The stalemate in negotiations between the two sides has culminated into a violent wave that has further deteriorated the relations in the troubled territory.

In Israel, almost a year after general elections, there is rarely talk about a possibility of a peaceful solution to the conflict.

According to Shaked, the most optimistic scenario would be a settlement -- but not a permanent peace agreement. Even this would require a change in Israel's regime, a shift to the left, which seems far away.

Rightfully, Shaked uses the idiom "it takes two to tango," and as Yehia Kassem analyzes -- the PA is "stuck between the jaws of its people (the Palestinians) and the jaws of the Israeli government."

This makes for an impossible dance, where the partners never meet.

Kassem says that as long as there will be no political progress, the Palestinians will hold their own leadership accountable. But the leadership cannot solve their problems without Israel.

Badran says a change in Washington is also needed. U.S. President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry were not able to pressure Israel or the Palestinians into making major moves towards serious progress.

Israelis who wish to see the dissolution of the PA may not be aware of the degree of dependence that exists between the two parties which would result in a severe blow to Israel -- not only in terms of its security, but also financially.

A large percentage of working Palestinians are employed by the local Palestinian government. Hundreds of thousands of newly unemployed Palestinians will certainly not promote an inductive atmosphere towards any peaceful settlement.

The wave of violence is already fueled by a sentiment of despair among Palestinians who see no hope for a better future.

Dr. Badran says the violence will either stop by itself or accelerate, neither the PA nor the Israeli military can stop it as it is a spontaneous uprising of Palestinians.

Shaked direly describes the reality on the ground: "The Palestinians do not believe they will see a state established, but they believe they still have to fight for it."

Israelis and Palestinians have never been further away from an agreement. Kassem says that the current wave of violence cannot easily be stopped: "It is not a button that can be turned on and off."

But as long as it is Israel's interest to sustain the PA, it will continue to exist. The international community will also not allow this backward step as it will mean the burial of a two-state solution. Enditem