Feature: Croatian scientists expect agreement at COP21 to reduce climate threats in Adriatic

Croatian scientists expected the ongoing COP21 climate conference in Paris to reach compromise solutions on reducing greenhouse gas emissions amid concerns that global warming causes the potential disappearance of some of the more than 1,400 islands along the coast of the country.

"It does not sound like much when you consider that global sea levels rise three millimeters per year, but when you put in a hundred year period, you have to worry," Mirko Orlic, a professor of geophysics at the University of Zagreb, told Xinhua in a recent interview.

The sea level of the Adriatic has risen rapidly in the last two decades, partly due to an increase of water volume and melting ice from glaciers and Greenland, Orlic said.

The coastal flooding would occur more frequent in the future, costing lives and causing economic damages, he said, adding "German colleagues from Kiel and Berlin estimate that floods in Croatia alone could cause losses of one to nine billion dollars per year at the end of this century."

In addition, he said, rising sea levels would threaten the supply of fresh water in the coastal areas because salt water would spill over into fresh water.

Kreso Pandzic, a climatologist for the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (MHS) also worried about the decrease of rainfall and heat waves in Mediterranean areas in summer months, the results of climate change.

It is expected that there would be more droughts in these areas, threatening water resources, he said, adding "precipitation higher intensity in a shorter time will also be unfavorable for water supplies, and we will have more flood and soil erosion."

The rise of the sea level of the Adriatic would particularly threaten low-lying coastal areas, such as a fertile area of the Neretva River, he said.

"If we do not take protective measures, some islands of the Kornati Archipelago, consisting of more than 100 islands in the Adriatic along the Croatian coast could disappear," said Pandzic.

But there is some good news, Orlic said. The Croatian coast is very steep and is better placed than the Netherlands, for example, where a third of its surface could be sunk if the global sea levels further rise at the end of this century, according to conservative estimates of scientists.

Orlic said he hoped a final agreement would be drafted in Paris, enabling the target of keeping the rise of global temperature under two degrees Celsius to be reached.

He said, however, for the new agreement to be both successful and fair, countries which contributed more greenhouse gases in last 200 years should shoulder more of the climate change burden.

In addition, the responsibilities and obligations should be assigned not only based on greenhouse gas emissions, but also on emissions per capita, he said.

The needs of developing countries' economic development should be considered, he added.

Pandzic expressed his optimism an agreement would be reached, telling Xinhua that the temperature did not go up by 3.5 to 5 degrees Celsius in one day. "We have time to take effective measures to deal with it. Of course we must act in a hurry."

Ivan Cacic, director of MHS and president of the Europe Regional Association of the World Meteorological Organization, too expected compromise solutions would be found in Paris that could stop the rise in global warming.

"Politicians are aware that global climate change could lead to considerable political turmoil," he said, adding they would have to act if they wanted a stable world.

Britain's Meteorological Institute warned that the temperature on earth in 2015 was one degree Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times.

Extreme weather and climate events are increasingly frequent and more intense. Thirteen of the 14 hottest years ever recorded occurred in the 21st century, with the warmest decade ever recorded being the decade from 2001 to 2010, according to the institute. Endit