Roundup: Turkish analysts urge caution, dialogue to contain fallout from shooting Russian plane

Turkish analysts have advised urgent dissipation and curtailing tensions between Ankara and Moscow, after Turkey downed a Russian Su-24 jet near its border with Syria on Tuesday.

Ankara hastened to curb the backlash after downing the Russian jet, while Moscow announced it will enforce a series of measures in retaliation to what it deemed a "hostile move" by Turkey.

"Both Turkey and Russia have vested interests in maintaining neutral bilateral ties over the Middle East's turbulent waters," Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, a professor of international relations at Ankara-based Gazi University told Xinhua.

"Neither side will benefit from further escalating the conflict, and they must work on steps to prevent a similar incident," he underscored.

Accusations were exchanged between Turkish and Russian leaders on Tuesday after the Russian Su-24 aircraft, allegedly intercepted Turkish air space, was shot down by two Turkish F-16 jets.

The Russian Defense Ministry contested Turkey's narrative of events that the Su-24 was attacked in Syrian air space.

Nurettin Altundeger, deputy president of the Ankara-based Center of Law, Ethics and Political Studies, warned that Turkey must act wisely and pursue smart and vigilant policies via diplomacy.

"Russia should be considered a neighbor rather than an enemy," he emphasized.

Altundeger pointed out that rivalry with Russia will not benefit Turkey, urging leaders to extend a good will message toward Russia and maintain open dialogue channels.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled out escalating tensions Wednesday, saying that Turkey has no interest in compounding the incident.

Nevertheless, he sounded defiant, vowing that Turkey will not recoil if faced with further violations of its border security or any trampling of its rights.

Turkey's main opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, also called for composure in order to diffuse tensions. He blamed Erdogan and the government for misguided and intrusive policies toward Syria.

Meanwhile, Moscow's rhetoric indicates possible retaliation following the incident.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that the incident would seriously impact Moscow's relations with Ankara. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Wednesday that the incident may well lead to canceling important joint projects.

TOURISM FIRST CASUALITY

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov advised Russians on Tuesday not to visit Turkey, after cancelling his visit to Ankara scheduled for Wednesday.

The threat of terrorism is commensurate with that in Egypt where a bomb leveled a Russian passenger plane in October over country's Sinai Peninsula.

Osman Ayik, head of the Turkish Hoteliers Federation, said the deteriorating crisis between Turkey and Russia will have a disastrous impact on Turkey's tourism industry.

"The loss of 700,000 to 800,000 Russian tourists this year (due to the Russian economic crisis) already negatively impacted tourism," he warned.

In 2014, 4.5 million Russian tourists visited Turkey, increasing revenues up to four billion U.S. dollars.

Turkey's tourism industry was hit by a radical low blow in 2015 due to its political instability, regional violence and Russian currency problems.

Russia's state tourism agency, Rostourism, recommends suspending sales of tour packages to Turkey, while Russian tour operator, Natali Tours, announced it will also stop its tour sales to Turkey.

BLOW TO TRADE

The Turkish-Russian Business Council honorary chairman, Turgut Gur, said increased tensions may result in grievous economic consequences on trade volumes between both countries, which currently stand at 35 billon U.S. dollars.

Noting that both countries had planned on increasing trade volumes to 100 billion U.S. dollars, Gur said severing ties with Russia will have serious political and economic consequences.

In 2014, Turkish exports to Russia stood at 5.9 billion U.S. dollars, while its imports from Russia -- mainly natural gas and oil -- stood at 25 billion U.S. dollars.

Russia is Turkey's seventh largest export and import partner.

Over and above, Turkey exported 20 percent of its foodstuff industry to Russia, in addition to 15 percent of its textile exports.

Russia announced Wednesday that it will stop importing chicken products from Turkey as of Dec. 1.

In 2014, Russia's imported chicken products from Turkey totaled six million U.S. dollars, and it was expected to reach 23.5 million U.S. dollars by the end of 2015.

The negative consequences may also impact contracts and tenders.

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Wednesday that Russia is considering canceling several substantial projects with Turkey in addition to outlawing Turkish companies from Russia's market.

Russia's state-owned Rosatom is currently building Turkey's first nuclear energy plant through outsourced contractors, a project which may soon be cancelled.

Energy expert Necdet Pamir highlighted that the situation will probably cause problems for the Akkuyu nuclear plant which Russia is building in Turkey.

Moscow is additionally considering building a new natural gas pipeline which will pass through Turkey, with the aim of establishing Turkey as a major transit country for Russian natural gas headed to Europe.

NO GAS CUT

Russia's natural gas sales to Turkey will continue despite worsening ties between both countries.

Russia's Deputy Energy Minister Anatoly Yanovsky confirmed Tuesday that gas supplies to Turkey will continue in accordance with contract liabilities.

Turkey imports 55 percent of its natural gas and 30 percent of its oil needs from Russia.

Turkish financial expert Ugur Gurses predicts that Russia will not use energy to pressure Turkey.

"Concerning the downed plane, they [Russia] won't adopt a 'let's close the valve' attitude. Political reverberations will be more bellicose," he said.

In addition, the Russian Defense Ministry has announced the adoption of a series of military measures, including providing aerial cover via fighter jets, boosting air defense by deploying guided missile cruisers off the Latakia coast, and suspending all military-to-military contact with Turkey.

Russia's air base in northern Syria's Latakia region will be reinforced with S-400 surface-to-air missile systems, according to Russia's Defense Minister, Sergey Shoigu.

Concerned over the rising discord, U.S. President Barack Obama and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan discussed the need to subdue tensions during a phone conversation Tuesday. Endit