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UNEP report reviews INDCs ahead of Paris climate meeting

chinagate.cn, November 6, 2015 Adjust font size:

With regard to the various potential scenarios for the emissions gap in 2025 and 2030, the report finds the following:

• The global emission levels consistent with a chance of staying below the 2°C limit, following a least-cost pathway from 2020, 48 GtCO2e (range 46 to 50) in 2025 and 42 GtCO2e (range: 31 to 44)in 2030.

• Emissions are projected to be 54 GtCO2e (range 53 to 58) in 2025 and 56 GtCO2e (range 54 to 59) in 2030, if all unconditional INDCs are implemented. This gives emission gaps of 7 GtCO2e (range 5 to 10) and 14 GtCO2e (range 12 to 17) in 2025 and 2030 respectively.

• If conditional INDCs are included, the global emissions projection is 53 GtCO2e (range 52 to 56) in 2025 and 54 GtCO2e (range 52 to 57) in 2030. This would give emission gaps of 5 GtCO2e (range 4 to 8) and 12 GtCO2e (range 10 to 15) in 2025 and 2030 respectively.

• If countries that have not yet submitted an INDC were to reduce their emissions at the same percentage as those that have already submitted, the gap would narrow by a further 0.5 GtCO2e in 2025 and 1 GtCO2e in 2030.

INDC process as foundation for closing the gap

The INDCs will likely have benefits beyond the estimated reductions to GHG emission levels as new climate policies and actions are being galvanized by the process, the report says.The preparation of the INDCs has incentivized the exploration of links between development and climate, and the development of new national climate polices, and may be considered as the first step in a transition towards low-carbon economies.

The Paris Agreement could build on and support these processes and provide the framework for mobilization of the enhanced mitigation efforts required, the report says.

Further options available

Enhanced energy efficiency—with a particular emphasis on industry, buildings and transport—and expanded use of renewable energy technologies for power productionwill be critical. Other key sectors emphasized in the studies include forestry, agriculture and waste.

In recognition of the significant opportunity for climate change mitigation through forest-related actions, the report includes a focus on REDD+ and finds the theoretical potential of reducing forest loss and restoring forests could be 9GtCO2e/yr in Africa, Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean combined. However, economic and land-use factors are likely to reduce this theoretical potential.

This reflects the fact that forest loss, which reached 7.6 million ha per year between 2010-2015 accounts for the largest portion of emissions from land use. While the full potential of REDD+ has not yet been reached, many countries are expressing their willingness to undertake large-scale forest-related mitigation.

REDD+ also has the potential to contribute to the large-scale restoration of degraded forest landscapes, which would boost food production and support adaptation to climate change.

The impact of actions by International Cooperative Initiatives—such as the C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, the Compact of Mayors, and the Cement Sustainability Initiative—can also be significant, the report finds. Preliminary assessments indicate an emissionreduction in the range of the range of 0.75 to 2 GtCO2e in 2020.

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