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New poll gives PP lead 7 weeks ahead of Spanish general election

Xinhua, November 6, 2015 Adjust font size:

The quarterly opinion poll published by Spain's Center for Sociological Investigation (CIS) on Thursday shows that the ruling People's Party (PP) are in line to win the forthcoming general election while falling a long way short of an overall majority.

Just 45 days ahead of the election, the CIS poll gives the PP 29.1 percent of the vote, ahead of the Socialist (PSOE) Party with 25.3 percent, while the center-right Citizens (Ciudadamos) party stands to win 14.7 percent and left wing Podemos 10.8 percent.

The previous CIS poll, which was published in early August, gave the PP 28.2 percent, while the PSOE had 24.9 percent, Podemos 15.7 percent and Citizens 11.1 percent.

There are factors in the latest poll which have to be born in mind when viewing at as a true barometer for December 20th: first of all, the study was carried out between 1-12 of October, a month ago, but a matter of days after the elections for the Catalan Regional Assembly which were won by the pro-Catalan independence coalition, Junts pel Si.

Citizens performed well in Catalonia where they were the second most popular party and it is possible that is not reflected in the CIS data.

Meanwhile the results of the CIS poll differ significantly from the Metroscope poll published in the El Pais newspaper on Nov. 1.

That poll, which was carried out at a later date, showed the four major parties to be much closer together with the PP claiming just 23.5 percent, the PSOE 21 percent with Citizens climbing into second place with 22.5 percent and Podemos 7 points better off on 17 percent, while the United left polling 6 percent of the vote.

Taken together these polls show the volatility in voting intentions in Spain at the moment and that volatility is likely to increase as the Catalan Assembly continues to take steps towards independence from Madrid further polarizing public opinion.

However, one thing looks certain and that is bearing a major surprise, December 20th is unlikely to produce a majority government and the party which wins the most seats will have to find partners with which to form a coalition. Endit