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News Analysis: Third option in Croatian elections to lower percentages won by major parties

Xinhua, November 3, 2015 Adjust font size:

There is only a week left for parliamentary elections campaign in Croatia, yet no analyst here dare to predict the winner of the elections, set for on Nov. 8, because of the narrow gap between two main contenders, ruling Social Democratic Party (SDP)'s coalition "Croatia is growing" and opposition Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)'s "Patriotic coalition."

Latest poll, conducted by Ipsos Puls, a service company for market, media and public opinion research in Croatia, showed that "Croatia is growing" had a support of 30.1 percent, while "Patriotic coalition" gained a support of 30.9 percent.

"Patriotic coalition" allures conservative segment of the population and their campaign emphasizes the love for the homeland and the return to the politics of first Croatian President Franjo Tudjman.

While the "Croatia is growing," led by Zoran Milanovic, the incumbent prime minister and president of SDP, is trying to convince voters that it managed in past four years to fix the economy and repair the damages which they claimed were caused by HDZ during its government.

Analysts noted that HDZ remained a slight lead of 0.8 percentage points over SDP, but it has declined in popularity from its peak after the victory of its candidate Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic in the presidential election, considering it enjoyed 33 percent support in Sept.

Kresimir Macan, a Croatian political PR professor, said in an interview with local media that some voters were expected to change their usual voting preferences, switch from one party to another this year since there was third option -- small parties.

He especially mentioned the newly founded party Bridge of Independent Lists (MOST), led by Bozo Petrov, mayor of the southern town of Metkovic.

He said MOST was rising rapidly in the last few months and he expected MOST to take some of the votes from both SDP and HDZ. According to the recent poll, MOST could get 8-9 seats in the parliament with a total of 151 members.

A third option will lower the percentages won by the two leading parties but not significantly, Macan said, adding that none of the two major coalitions would have the power to form government alone, they would look for partners. MOST seemed to be the one to watch.

Ipsos Puls's survey also showed that indecisive voters stand at 12 percent for the moment, meaning that parties still need to make efforts to try and win new votes. Enditem