News Analysis: Bangkok blast likely to hurt Thai tourism, economy

Bangkok's deadly bomb attack on Monday could take a toll on Thailand's tourism, a major pillar of the country's weakening economy that is suffering contracted exports, analysts say.

The first half of 2015 saw marked achievements in the tourism sector, which, however, will be badly affected by the explosion that rocked Erawan Shrine at the Ratchaprasong intersection, a popular tourist attraction in downtown Bangkok, on Monday night.

At least 20 people were killed, including seven Chinese nationals, and more than 100 others injured in the tragic incident.

The Thai economy may not recover from the negative impact of the explosion until early next year, Thai economist Kampon Adireksombat said, stressing that the impact will be minimized if the government captures the perpetrators promptly and puts an end to this tragedy.

In the short term, fewer individual tourists will be visiting Thailand, and the situation will be further exacerbated if there are more explosions to follow.

The remainder of this year is expected to witness slower economic growth, which will rely heavily on government spending and tourism, but the blast will have short-term influence on the tourism industry, said Huang Bin, an expert with Kasikorn Research Center, a Thai think tank.

"It is hoped that Monday's explosion is only an isolated incident, with no more similar attacks to follow. The Thai government will take measures to ensure safety, restore tourists' confidence and protect the tourism sector from being severely affected," Huang told Xinhua.

Meanwhile, some argue that the number of tourists to Thailand is unlikely to drop to any alarming extent following Monday's blast, which may simply be attributed to the fact that most will not frequent such specific spots.

In particular, the bomb attack will not prompt Chinese travelers to call off their planned visits to the Southeast Asian country where most usually come in groups rather than individually, according to Sitthivat Chivaratanaporn, adviser to the Association of Thai Travel Agents.

"Though Bangkok's unprecedented bomb attack will almost certainly spoil the confidence of tourists in general, it will not affect the planned visits by most Chinese to Thailand," Sitthivat concluded.

As many as 28 million tourists, including up to six million Chinese, are expected to visit the country throughout this year.

"Chinese tour agents made inquiries about the bomb attack but none has canceled their arranged trips to Thailand. Since the shrine is not a main attraction for their group tourists, those tour agents did not look much worried about the situation so far," he said.

Thais have carried on with their lives, and the explosion will only have minimal impact on the Thai economy, commented associate professor Aksornsri Phanishsarn, director of the Thai-Chinese Strategic Research Center.

Members of the public, Thais and foreigners alike, have been given a stern warning by the ruling Thai military to exercise utmost caution at other tourist-frequented spots in the heart of the capital, besides the Ratchaprasong intersection area, including Patumwan intersection, Silom Road, Sukhumvit Road, Victory Monument and Khaosarn Road areas.

In a televised public address, Thai leader Prayut Chan-o-cha condemned the inhumane atrocity of the bombing and blamed it on some unknown, ill-intentioned elements who might only seek to " destroy" the Thai economy and tourist industry by perpetrating such violence at public places.

The police are currently investigating the bombing though no perpetrator has been arrested as yet.

Finance Minister Sommai Pasee has raised concerns over the likelihood of adverse effects on the Thai tourism caused by such untoward incidents and urged those in charge of national security affairs to step up measures to prevent future losses of innocent lives.

"That bomb attack could make people cringe in fear to the extent that it might possibly occur again at any time and place, even in the midst of shopping areas or commercial districts. Those in charge of security affairs should see to it that the tourism climate will be no longer spoiled by such untoward incidents," he said. Endi