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News Analysis: Rousseff may avoid impeachment but face tougher road ahead

Xinhua, August 18, 2015 Adjust font size:

By her own reckoning, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff is a victim.

As the web of corruption continues to spread across Brazil's political and economic landscape, Rousseff casts herself as a woman standing alone over the chaos.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, her predecessor and mentor, is under suspicion. Jose Dirceu, Lula's former chief of staff, is under arrest.

Even though there is no proof now of Rousseff's connection with corruption, the massive street protests, organized by the Free Brazil movement, engulfed 180 cities on Sunday.

They are not only in response to the Petrobras scandal, but also to a series of failed economic policies the government has led.

However, Rousseff may fight to avoid the impeachment as Sunday's movement flagged slightly in comparison to earlier protests.

After weeks of being on the defensive, the president took up arms once again on Monday, gathering her government and congressional leaders this week to discuss their policy priorities.

Jose Pimentel, the Workers' Party leader in Congress, said after the meeting that the government would seek to pass two laws about reduction on payroll tax this week, a move sure to be popular with businesses, and to help repatriate undeclared funds stashed by Brazilians overseas.

Another political matter has broken in her favor. The Workers Party, long under suspicion of illegal interference in the last presidential election, has seen the investigation suspended.

Furthermore, the national audit court has granted the government an extension to counter allegations of fiscal mismanagement.

This may imbue Rousseff once again with a shred of the political expediency which made both her and Lula so popular. She continued costly but beneficial social policies that Lula had previously put in place during her first term.

Such a political line of succession was necessary for Rousseff, who was largely elected as Lula's chosen one. In a way, the beginning of her crisis was not all of her own doing when Lula's policies had already begun to lower Brazil's reserves.

So too had Lula engineered Brazil to be awarded the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Summer Olympics. These were all part of the man's vision for a renewed Brazil, arriving on the world stage with pride, ambition and samba.

It is Rousseff who has to achieve the vision, but the economic crisis bit deep into Brazil's profligate finances, the budget for the World Cup and Olympics spiraled, and protests began.

Now Petrobras' stocks are through the floor, Brazilian exports are down, GDP growth expectations have been cut, inflation is rising, and credit rating agencies are threatening to junk the country's rating.

These all have culminated into Brazil's nationwide protests on Sunday with one goal in mind: impeachment. Rousseff's popularity dropped at 8 percent, according to the most recent polls, though no proof has been found of her involvement in the current "Lava Jato" (Car Wash) investigation.

Despite 184 members of Congress ready to support her impeachment, according to opposition sources, there are still no legal means to do so. However, the success of her renewed political agenda this week will be crucial.

Last week, Rousseff went on the offensive, meeting with legislators to support in the lead-up to the protests.

She had acknowledged the crisis and was betting on dialogue and negotiation to help overcome widespread discontent, but she also confirmed that she had no intention of stepping down.

However, with approval ratings in single digit and still facing a sizeable rebellion, Rousseff needs legislative successes badly. Without them, it remains to be seen how long she can cling on to power. Endi