Italy's Renzi seeing approval levels drop to new lows but no political problems yet, analysts say

Approval levels for Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi have taken a beating in recent months, pushed down at least in part by the country's moribund economy. But experts say it isn't enough to put Renzi's government in jeopardy just yet.

Renzi's approval levels peaked at over 70 percent after his party's strong performance in elections for the European parliament in May 2014, but they have been on the decline since then. In the latest polls, released this week, the prime minister's approval levels have been cut in half, to around 35 percent.

For a prime minister who relies in part on his popular mandate to push through his reform agenda, that is a dramatic drop.

"For a long time, Renzi could threaten to call elections and count on the likelihood that elections would only strengthen his hand," ABS Securities political affairs analyst Gian Franco Gallo told Xinhua. "That is no longer the case."

Gallo said Renzi would almost surely win elections if they were held today, but that his parliamentary majority might be reduced.

According to Nicola Piepoli from the Instituto Piepoli, polling and opinion firm, Renzi's approval levels seem low, bit only compared to his previous highs.

"Thirty-five percent is a big fall from the levels from last year, but it's still higher than the approval levels for Renzi's counterparts in Spain or France," Piepoli said in an interview. "Fortunately for Renzi, he is also much higher than the leaders of other political factions in Italy."

Beppe Grillo, the comedian-turned politician whose followers stand in opposition to Renzi's party in parliament, gets a positive option from only about 25 percent of Italians, while Silvio Berlusconi, a former prime minister and another opposition leader, checks in at around 12 percent.

That means Renzi's probably job remains safe, Piepoli said. But if approval levels continue to fall and the prime minister's ability to push through reforms is reduced, it could be bad news - pollsters say slow economic growth is one of the main reasons many Italians are starting to sour on Renzi, and economists say that the best way to spark growth is to continue with the reforms.

"It could become a vicious circle where the government must take its foot off the gas on the reform agenda and economic prospects worsen," Gallo said. "But we aren't there yet."

Among the reforms Renzi is pushing are changes to make future governments more stable, to reduce government spending, increase efficiency, create tax incentives, and introduce more flexibility to job markets.

Another factor, according to Piepoli, and one Renzi can do even less about, is that in Italy there's a tendency for voters to grow weary of those in power. That trend, Piepoli said, it likely to work against him no matter what he does. Endit