News Analysis: Israel views nuclear deal as failure of its foreign policy
Xinhua, July 15, 2015 Adjust font size:
Viewed by Israel as a disaster, the agreement reached between Iran and the six world powers in Vienna Tuesday may equally be declared as a failure of Israeli foreign policy in the past years.
After almost a decade of negotiations and endless warnings by Israeli leaders, Iran emerged with a favorable deal. As Israel makes its opposition to the agreement increasingly vocal, Iran declares a greater achievement.
Dr. Ephraim Sneh, a former Israeli military general and politician, predicts that regional countries not under Iranian influence "will suffer immensely" from the consequences of the agreement.
"Iran will continue encouraging terrorism and establishing its regional hegemony while arming itself with strategic weapons," Sneh adds.
Israel found itself waiting on the sidelines however.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in power since 2009, has seemingly failed in what he defined as Israel's most pressing and existential challenge.
According to Dr. Sneh, Netanyahu's predecessor, Ehud Olmert, was headed in the right direction by simultaneously bolstering Israel's defense, warning the international community of the perils of a nuclear Iran, yet making headway on other pressing matters.
Netanyahu's failure in the negotiations with the Palestinians, further entrenched Israel in the occupation of the West Bank, alienated U.S. President Barack Obama, and severely weakened Israel's position, according to Sneh, a former dovish politician.
Obama considers Netanyahu largely responsible for the stalemate in negotiations with the Palestinians on a final settlement with Israel.
Netanyahu, he says, is "100 percent correct" regarding his warnings concerning Iran, but his policy on other issues isolated Israel to such an extent that it stood no chance of influencing any deals with the Iranian regime.
During his re-election campaign in March 2015, Netanyahu made a controversial appearance at the U.S. congress against the will of the Obama administration.
It was one of the lowest points in an already tumulus relationship between the two leaders which cast a shadow on relations between the two countries.
Israeli insistence to try to sway the U.S. congress and American public opinion against a deal with Iran placed Israel in an even weaker position.
Following the visit, Israeli officials were marginalized from critical information concerning the talks and found themselves powerless in influencing American decision makers as they sat before Iranian officials at the negotiations table.
Undoubtedly a nuclear Iran is a substantial threat to Israel, yet Netanyahu's confrontational choice with his major ally was a poor one which left Israel increasingly isolated in a rather hostile region.
Netanyahu Tuesday fiercely criticized the agreement, calling it "a stunning historical mistake," also declaring that Israel is not "bound" by the deal.
Could Israel currently consider a unilateral pre-emptive attack against Iran before it acquires full-blown nuclear capabilities? How can an internationally isolated government led by Netanyahu take such a bold step?
Dr. Ephraim Sneh believes Israel must have a credible plan to do so, and should act against US will in the event of an imminent threat.
Dr. Eitan Barak, of the Department of International Relations in the Hebrew University, completely rules out an Israeli military strike. The international agreement renders it impossible for Israel to act unilaterally without American diplomatic support at the very least.
However Barak does not view the agreement as a colossal failure as many Israelis declare. The sanctions which brought Iran to the negotiations table, dealt a severe blow to the Iranian economy and its efforts to consolidate its position as a regional superpower.
Throughout the years Israeli leaders succeeded in convincing the international arena that a nuclear Iran is not merely an Israeli problem but a threat to several countries. This, in itself, is an achievement.
According to Dr. Barak, the agreement allows Israel to maintain its status as a regional nuclear monopoly, who, according to media sources, possesses a substantial amount of nuclear weapons - something Israel has neither confirmed nor denied.
As long as the agreement is implemented and Iran is subjected to international scrutiny, Israel will remain the region's sole occupier of nuclear weapons.
It now remains to be seen what Israel will decide to do in the aftermath of the agreement.
Will Netanyahu choose to pursue the confrontational path with the United States and attempt to rally Congress against the agreement? Should Congress vote against lifting sanctions on Iran, the U.S. would be violating the agreement with Iran, jeopardizing the agreement reached in Vienna.
Netanyahu has a vested interest in torpedoing the agreement, however it will put his relationship with the Obama administration at an even further risk. His speech to the American Congress during his election campaign despite the President's objection indicates he might take a similar path once more, openly acting against Obama.
While it is easy to declare Israel's foreign policy failure in light of the agreement, a closer look reveals there may be a few achievements in the framework.
However, if Netanyahu continues openly opposing Obama, whose international prestige rides on the agreement, Israel may find itself in a tougher position than it is in already.
With lack of progress on the Palestinian issue, Obama might be even more reluctant to cooperate with Netanyahu on other issues such as the Iranian nuclear program.
If Netanyahu plays his cards wisely, he may be able to secure a security package from the Americans which would compensate Israel for its now alleged compromised security, analysts predict.
Analysts estimate that Netanyahu's choice to alienate the current American administration may leave Israel in the dark regarding important regional issues.
If we can use Netanyahu's past decisions to predict his future ones, the rift with the Obama administration will persist and Israel will remain severely sidelined on the international arena. Endit