News Analysis: Turkey set to go for early election under interim or coalition gov't

The loss of majority in the parliament by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has paved the way for either a coalition government or an interim minority government that is slated to take the nation to an early election, analysts said on Sunday.

According to unofficial early results, the AKP won 40.70 percent of them, almost 10 percent decline from the previous national elections held in 2011.

"The election results are terrible setback for the AKP that campaigned on the presidential system as the centerpiece of its election pledge," Idris Gursoy, Ankara-based political analyst, told Xinhua.

"It seems the voters did not buy into that," he remarked, adding that the country will likely go to an early elections.

The AKP was expected to receive some 256 seats in 550-member parliament, which is not enough to obtain simple majority to form a single party government.

According to Turkish law, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will give a mandate to the AKP, which is still the leading party to enter into a coalition, to talk with the opposition.

All the major opposition parties refused to commit themselves with a coalition government with the AKP during the campaign period.

It remains to be seen whether any one of them has a change in post-election period. Early comments from opposition parties seem to suggest that they are still resisting the idea of partnering with the AKP.

In his post-election victory speech, Selahattin Demirtas, the leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), said the HDP will never enter into a coalition with the ruling party.

Commenting on election results, the main opposition Republican Peoples' Party (CHP) spokesperson Haluk Koc also ruled out coalition with the AKP, saying that the party will never associate itself with AKP that is tainted with thievery and corruption.

If the AKP fails to form a government in the next 45 days, the president has to transfer the mandate to the main opposition CHP, which received 25.12 percent of votes and some 133 seats.

The CHP may form a coalition with both the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and the pro-Kurdish HDP. The MHP obtained 16.42 percent with some 83 seats and the HDP gained 13.01 percent with 78 seats in the parliament.

All three opposition parties have enough number of combined seats that is more than the required majority of 276.

If the government cannot be formed, the president has to call for an early election and form an interim government with representation from major parties according to the vote results in the last elections.

Burhan Kuzu, the AKP lawmaker and the head of the Constitutional Commission, said the results showed an early election would be inevitable.

"We do not deserve this picture. But there won't be a coalition from this picture," he noted.

Whatever scenario is put in place, Turkey will have to go an early election maximum within a year, Gursoy predicted.

"But before the nation heads to an early election, a new compromise will be sought on limiting the powers of the president, reducing the 10 percent national election threshold and changing law on political parties," Sinan Ogan, an academic and lawmaker from the MHP, said.

The setback suffered by the AKP also meant that Erdogan's centerpiece campaign promise of switching Turkey's parliamentary system to an executive presidency has to be discarded.

"This was a major loss for Erdogan who had campaigned on behalf of the ruling party despite clear Constitutional rules barring him from associating with any party," Ali Aslan Kilic, a Turkish analyst, told Xinhua.

"Turkish voters are not convinced why the country has to dump century-long parliamentary system," Kilic stated.

"The blame game will start in the AKP and somebody has to take responsibility for the loss of majority in the parliament," Kilic said. Endit