Roundup: Undecided voters set to determine fate of elections in Turkey

A week before Turkey's legislative elections, a big chunk of undecided voters are still there, prompting many analysts to predict surprising results of the polls that will determine the next government.

Although there is a large consensus on who will lead up the elections, nobody is certain whether the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will pick up enough seats to establish a single party government.

According to Washington-based Turkish analyst Emre Uslu, the rate of voters who have not yet made up their minds yet is over 10 percent. "This is the first time compared to previous elections."

He attributed the reason for that to people's tendency to conceal their electoral preferences for some reason.

Abdulkadir Selvi, a columnist at pro-government Yeni Safak daily, confirms the fear among the ranks of the ruling party.

He said in each election cycle, the undecided voters that start out as 15 percent before the electioneering usually drops to five percent close to the elections.

"But this time, it (undecided voters) keeps at 14 percent," he warned, as a short period is left before the vote.

Many of those undecided voters used to be supporters of the ruling party, he noted.

Should the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) be able to pass the nationally imposed 10 percent threshold, it could take 50 seats from the AKP, potentially causing the current government to lose its majority and be forced to form either a coalition or a minority government.

Most polls predict that the HDP will pass the threshold, but they differ on the margin.

Konda polling company said the Kurdish party would garner 11.5 percent of the votes while pollster Sonar predicted the HDP votes at 10.4 percent. Gezici polling company estimated that the HDP votes rose to 12.5 percent this week.

That means the coalition government is the most likely scenario after the June 7 elections.

"The HDP's successful performance at election rallies, and that of its co-chair, Selahattin Demirtas, have taken the AKP by surprise," Orhan Oguz Gurbuz, a Turkish expert, said.

He said Demirtas, a young and engaging leader, can appeal to every member of society, send ironic messages and may very well muster unexpected electoral support for the HDP.

Even if the AKP will be able to secure enough seats, it will be weakened considerably.

The decline in the popular vote for the AKP stems mainly from the loss of its traditional voters in the mainstream due to economic difficulties as well as the defection of Kurdish voters in favor of the HDP.

Many voters are naturally concerned about the prospects of the Turkish economy and are struggling to make ends meet under heavy burden of credit debts. The unemployment is another issue that voters deeply care about.

The main opposition Republican Peoples' Party (CHP) seems to have been trying to tap into voters' apprehension on economy by offering credit debt amnesty, hike in minimum wage and bonus salary payments to pensioners and civil servants.

The CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu recently stated that his party exceeded 30 percent, citing internal poll data because of strong economic messages.

The Gezici research company, in its latest poll this week, announced that the support for the CHP has increased to 29 percent. In the same poll, the ruling AKP's support has dropped to 39 percent, a near 11 percent decline from the previous 2011 elections during which the AKP received about 50 percent.

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is also on the rise in the polls. The party received 13 percent in 2011 but the polls suggest it has now reached to 18 percent by attracting voters who voted for the ruling party before.

Concerned that the support for the AKP dropped significantly, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has intensified campaigning on behalf of the ruling party.

But, the move drew the ire of opposition parties, accusing the president of being a partisan.

On Thursday, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli criticized the president for conducting an election campaign for the AKP and holding campaign events under the guise of inauguration ceremonies.

The president's role in Turkey is supposed to be impartial and independent of any political party according to the Constitution. Enditem