News Analysis: Netanyahu's fourth government heads for uncertain future

After 42 days of negotiations, incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu secured a narrow-majority coalition hours before the midnight deadline Wednesday.

The coalition, far more right-leaning than Netanyahu's previous three governments, consists of the ultra-Orthodox parties of Shas and United Torah Judaism, the center-right Kulanu party and the ultra-rightwing Jewish Home party.

It is widely believed that the coalition, backed by only 61 lawmakers in the 120-seat parliament, is very fragile and that with his hands tied up by ruling partners, Netanyahu would be difficult to push forward his own agenda.

RAZER-THIN MAJORITY

Netanyahu had hoped to form a stable new government with broad support through the March 17 elections, which he called after removing two center-left parties from his then deeply-divided cabinet. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud won an unexpected clear victory in the vote, gaining 30 seats.

It had been expected that Netanyahu would easily establish a new government with Likud's natural allies -- the religious parties of Shas and the United Torah Judaism, the center-right Kulanu party, and the ultra-right parties of the Jewish Home and the Yisrael Beiteinu. The six parties command a total of 67 seats in the one-chamber parliament.

However, Netanyahu's coalition-building efforts tumbled after his long-time ruling partner, Foreign Minister Avigado Lieberman, declared his decision not to join the new government, just three days before the deadline. Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party holds six seats in the parliament.

Though in the end Netanyahu did manage to strike a coalition deal with the Jewish Home at the last minute, the single-seat majority coalition has given rise to doubts about its chance to survive its full term as well as its ability to govern.

"It will only be a matter of a few months before they (Israeli voters) are called back to the polling stations, and until then Netanyahu will have to again produce all his political magic, juggling and acrobatic skills in order to continue to hold on to the title of prime minister," said commentator Eitan Haber in an op-ed on the ynetnews.com.

"Because of the slim margin, Netanyahu would depend on the whims of each member of his coalition, who may decide to be absent from an important vote (in parliament) or play hardball,"Dr. Revital Amiran, an expert in Israel's politics, told Xinhua.

CHALLENGES AHEAD

The next government will first have to deal with a pressing issue troubling many Israelis -- the high costs of living in Israel and the housing crisis.

In 2011, hundreds of thousands of Israelis protested over those issues. These are still hot topics on the public agenda. It's part of the reason for the success of former Likud Minister Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu party in this elections as he is remembered fondly by many Israelis for his cellular market reform which lowered prices in 2012.

Amiran said the socio-economic reforms like the ones Kahlon plans will probably have more support and would be less problematic.

"These social reforms aimed at tackling the high costs of living and the housing crisis will get wide support because many in the coalition -- and the opposition -- understand that this is the zeitgeist,"Amiran explained.

However, whereas social-economic reforms are expected to pass rather easily, other reforms may cause friction in the coalition.

One expected showdown could emerge between future Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, a hawkish lawmaker of the Jewish Home, and Kahlon over the former's planned reforms in the judicial branch.

Shaked, known for her objection to the Supreme Court's role in overseeing legislation, would continue her efforts to limit the power of the high tribunal.

"Kahlon made statements recently in which he positioned himself as the protector of the Supreme Court. He would surely object to Shaked's moves,"Amiran predicted.

On the diplomatic front, it seems obvious that due to its right-wing orientation, the government would maintain the status quo in the conflict with the Palestinians and shun taking any moves to revive the peace process.

"This coalition has homogeneous views on diplomatic and security issues. No one has any interest in discussing the peace process at all and in the Israel's relations with the Palestinian Authority,"Amiran said.

INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION

With a right-wing government, Israel would find itself at risk of further compromising its close-knit relationship with Washington and facing sanctions from the European Union (EU) over its settlement construction.

"The policy pursued by Netanyahu and former Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman in recent years has brought Israel to a slump on the international level and now Israel is getting a cold shoulder from the world,"Amiran said, adding that the new coalition "exacerbates the challenges in handling the European Union and the BDS (Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions) movement on Israel."

Israel may thus have problems facing the unilateral Palestinian diplomatic moves and its threats of suing Israel in the International Criminal Court in The Hague for war crimes.

U.S. officials have already warned that it would be harder for Washington to prevent the internationalization of the Israel-Palestinian conflict if the new Israeli government steps back from the commitment to the two-state solution.

Emmanuel Navon, a political scientist of Tel Aviv University, told Xinhua that there would be little chance for the Israeli and U.S. governments to bridge their differences over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iran in the near future.

"The Obama administration has threatened not to apply its veto at the (United Nations) Security Council against anti-Israel resolutions.That will further sour the relationship between the two leaders (Netanyahu and President Barack Obama). That's for sure," he said.

Amiran believed that in order to ease strained relations with the United States and prevent international isolation, Netanyahu would try to bring moderates, such as Labor party leader Isaac Herzog, into his cabinet in the future. Endit